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7 years ago

Merkel - a stable figure in an unstable world

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel will always be remembered as a person who gave priority to ethical values and human rights and turned Germany into the humanitarian face of Europe.

 

 

This was best exemplified with her suspending the Dublin agreement - which required asylum seekers to stay in their EU country of arrival - applicable particularly for Syrians. The negative response of the Hungarian government and their authorities closing down the main railway station in Budapest and refusing to allow asylum seekers to board trains onwards to Western Europe was in direct contrast with what was undertaken by Germany under Merkel's leadership. Merkel hastily agreed on a plan with the Austrian government.

 

 

Within hours, asylum seekers were joyfully boarding trains to Munich. The doors to Germany were open. Afterwards, Merkel very correctly stated that the way she had acted would prevent a humanitarian crisis.

 

 

This late-summer 2015 decision was, however, not taken very well by certain fringe segments in Germany. This was best exemplified by the comment of Merkel's former environment minister Norbert Röttgen, who critically pointed out that this was "not so much a moral or ethical question" but an issue where  "collectively, Germany underestimated the longer-term implications and consequences" of that decision. Thomas de Maiziere, the interior minister, was worried that there might be a backlash over the country having to struggle and cope with the sheer number of people seeking asylum.

 

 

Other EU countries were also critical and pointed out that Germany was encouraging an influx that was affecting them as well. Consequently, Merkel's repeated appeals for a quota system to evenly distribute asylum seekers across the EU were ignored.

 

 

The subsequent months witnessed German authorities facing serious difficulties not only in satisfactorily housing and integrating the hundreds of thousands of new arrivals but also in containing attacks on refugee accommodations. This was interpreted by some analysts and politicians as evidence that Merkel's policy was failing. Her approval ratings began to fall. As populist movements gained ground across Europe, Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (Afd) campaigned hard and began to attract supporters. For many, the real turning point came on the very last day of 2015. During New Year's Eve celebrations in Cologne, hundreds of women were sexually assaulted by groups of men - mostly described as being of North African or Arab origin.

 

 

It horrified Germany. For the first time since the crisis began, Merkel was in real political trouble. Analysts pointed out that the Merkel brand had become so tarnished that some within the party began to cast about for alternatives to lead them into the next general election. Their pessimism was vindicated as the party suffered two humiliating regional election defeats - one of them in Merkel's own home state of Mecklenburg Vorpommen.

 

 

But, remarkably, she survived. This was possible because gradually her government tightened the law - making it easier to deport asylum seekers who commit crime, as well as declaring countries like the former Balkan states safe so that their citizens have no right to asylum in Germany. The number of migrants reaching Germany dwindled and her popularity rose once again. This led to a fresh comment by Norbert Röttgen: "The numbers have decreased rapidly and significantly to a manageable level for the last 18 months. It was a critical period, but it turned out to not be a never-ending story."

 

 

ALL EYES IN EUROPE ARE DIRECTED AT MERKEL: Merkel's clout on the world stage sprang initially from Germany's economic weight and subsequent leadership during the Eurozone crisis. Since then, it is generally agreed that today all eyes in Europe are directed at Merkel. No other politician on the European Continent arouses so much hope.

 

 

The refugee crisis cemented Merkel's position as de facto leader of the EU. It would be correct to also note here that Obama's friendship with Merkel, specially his public support for her refugee policy, has done much to soothe her voters.

 

 

Merkel has been in the job for 12 years. Critics have stated that her political fortunes have risen, fallen and risen again. However, her personal popularity rating - measured monthly for broadcaster ARD - has never dropped below 46 per cent. That's part skill and part fortune.

 

 

Ever since the Brexit referendum and Trump's election, Merkel to many German voters has assumed the status of a stable figure in an unstable world. She has taken her time deciding whether to stand for a fourth term. It has been mentioned by some of her close associates that she was exhausted by the migrant crisis, unsure of the electorate's support and also wanted to spend more time within her family. Some interpreted this as deliberate prevarication, but her party, and the country, started to feel mildly panicked. This was so because at this point of time there does not appear to be any obvious successor to the Chancellor. At the age of 63, Merkel today is unrivalled and at the height of her political confidence.

 

 

It is almost certain that Merkel will edge her way to victory in the September 24 election. Her campaign has been sedate but skilled. Opinion polls have pointed out that barring any major unforeseen event in the final week before the polls, Merkel will emerge victorious for her fourth term.

 

 

According to German public TV station ZDF, at 36 per cent, the CDU/CSU enjoys a 13 percentage point lead over the SPD. The Social Democrats under their chief Martin Schulz appears to have failed in their efforts in a campaign calling for social justice - at a time when unemployment is at a record low in Germany and the economy is turning in a solid performance.

 

 

This means that the search is on to ascertain which party will emerge as the third major political force in Germany  after the election and will become a potential coalition partner for Merkel's conservatives. Current discussion is pointing to a possible engagement with the Free Democrats (FDP), Merkel's coalition partner during her second term and with the Greens (with their leader Cem Ozdemir already casting himself in the role of the future Foreign Minister). This might happen but all parties will have to resolve their existing differences in areas such as tax, energy and migration.

 

 

The other question in many minds relate to the expected success of the right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany party becoming the first major anti-foreigner party to enter Germany's national parliament since World War II. This might add to the ripples that will exist within the post-election paradigm.

 

 

FUTURE POLITICAL PATH: However Merkel's future political path after possible re-election is not likely to be easy. The European matrix with its current crisis regarding European solidarity and co-operation will be an important challenge. In global terms, she will have a daunting agenda - an "erratic" US administration, the question of migration and trafficking, Syria and Ukraine. There is also the deterioration in the relationship with the increasingly belligerent Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This is an important matter as Germany is home to around three million people of Turkish descent.

 

 

Erdogan, it may be recalled, was furious after several of his Ministers were prevented from campaigning on German soil ahead of Turkey's constitutional referendum in 2017. Diplomatic relations - never easy - reached a new low when a number of German nationals, including several journalists, were detained in Turkey. Merkel has never supported Turkish accession to the EU but thus far has refused calls from some political quarters to call off accession negotiations. She has not taken this course of action arguing that there is no consensus within the EU on the issue. This time, her opinion might see a shift in view of the Turkish President openly asking people of Turkish descent in Germany to vote against Merkel during the election. There is also the migrant deal. Consequently, it will be a delicate balance.

 

 

Merkel in all likelihood will also be preoccupied with the future of a post-Brexit EU. She has already indicated her support for French President Emmanuel Macron's ambition for deeper integration within the Eurozone. However, there has been a twist in the tail with Macron's domestic popularity leaching away. Analysts are commenting that this might affect hopes for a renewed Franco-German axis at the heart of Europe.

 

 

The scandal over bypassing tests on diesel cars also continues to cast a shadow. This has assumed importance because air pollution regularly exceeds legal levels in many German cities and at least one, Stuttgart, is considering whether it should impose a ban on all diesel vehicles. In this context activists are pointing out that while Merkel needs to protect the health of her citizens, she must also safeguard Germany's automobile industry. And, as Wolfgang Bosbach puts it, Merkel has a tough challenge ahead - "future-proofing" the economy in a globalised marketplace.

 

 

I will conclude with CDU leader Wolfgang Bosbach's interesting observation regarding Merkel. He has stated that the Chancellor is motivated solely by a sense of duty and "she understands her role as being a servant of the state. She grew up in East Germany, far removed from democracy, which is why she perceives her life in reunited Germany as a gift and she wants to show gratitude in return for the freedom and rights she received after the Wall came down."

 

 

The writer, a former Ambassador and Chief Information Commissioner of the Information Commission, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.

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