'Bangladesh economy to outshine Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong by 2024'

Bangladesh’s economy will outshine the economy of Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore with its presence as the 30th largest economy in the world by 2024, says a new report.

The global report, titled World Economic League Table 2020, of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) also says that Bangladesh’s economy will further climb from the 40th place in the World Economic League Table in 2020 to 26th and 25th position respectively by 2029 and 2034.

The world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2034 was published recently.

With a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $5,028 in 2019, Bangladesh is a lower middle-income country, Cebr says.

Bangladesh’s economy performed well last year, recording a 7.8 per cent growth, according to the report. The country recorded 7.9 per cent growth in 2018.

The population increased at a rate of 1 per cent per year since 2014. This has meant that per capita incomes have grown considerably in recent years. The government debt as a share of GDP rose to 34.6 per cent last year. This is up from 34 per cent in 2018.

Despite this increase, the public sector finances remain in good shape. The relatively low debt burden has provided the government with the fiscal headroom to operate a budget deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2019.

The annual rate of GDP growth is forecast to slow to an average of 7.3 per cent between 2020 and 2025, according to the report.

Over the subsequent nine years, Cebr forecasts that the economy will remain at this impressive rate, which will see Bangladesh climb from 40th place in the World Economic League Table in 2020 to 25th place by 2034.

China is predicted to become the world’s largest economy in 2033, overtaking the US with growth boosted by technology. India, on the other hand, is predicted to overtake Germany to become the world’s fourth largest economy in 2026 and overtake Japan to become the world’s third largest economy in 2034.

China’s population is forecast to peak at 1,416.4 million in 2028 before falling to about 1 billion by 2100.

In addition, this demography means that the population is likely to age substantially as well. India’s population is expected to overtake China’s in 2027, according to the UN.

The report says they expect the trend rate of growth for China to be 5.4 per cent annually from 2019-24 and 5.2 per cent annually from 2024-29 and 4.3 per cent annually from 2029-34.

On India, they expect the trend rate of growth for India to be 5.5 per cent annually from 2019-24 and 6.1 per cent annually from 2024-29 and 6.1 per cent annually from 2029-34.