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The central bank has cautioned that inward remittance flows could come under pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupt labour migration and weaken economic activity in major host countries.
"Despite high remittance inflows supported by a large stock of existing migrant workers, remittance growth could slow due to migration disruptions and economic uncertainty in host countries," the Bangladesh Bank (BB) said in its latest "Quarterly Report on Remittance Inflows in Bangladesh", released on Sunday.
The scale of the impact will largely depend on the duration and geographical spread of the US-Iran conflict, according to the report, which analyses inward remittance trends during the January-March quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2025-26.
"A brief conflict may have only limited effects, whereas a prolonged regional crisis could significantly reduce remittance inflows and intensify pressure on Bangladesh's external sector," the central bank said.
The BB's latest warning comes amid a decline in inward remittance inflows since the beginning of this month following the Eid-ul-Azha holidays.
According to the central bank's latest data, remittance inflows to Bangladesh fell by nearly 21 per cent to US$683.37 million during the first six days of June, compared with US$862.59 million during the same period a year earlier.
Despite the decline at the start of the month, overall remittance inflows in FY26 have remained robust.
Inward remittances rose by nearly 18 per cent to US$33.44 billion during the July 2025-6 June 2026 period of FY26, up from US$28.37 billion during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.
"In the near term, remittance earnings and labour migration from Bangladesh are expected to remain positive, although they remain vulnerable to global uncertainties. Nevertheless, the overall outlook remains relatively resilient," the central bank said in the report.
However, it noted that the smooth flow of remittances would depend significantly on the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Speaking to The Financial Express, Md Ezazul Islam, Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Bank Management (BIBM), said labour demand from the Middle East was expected to recover once the conflict subsides.
"Our workers remain relatively cost-competitive compared with those from peer countries, so Bangladesh is unlikely to face any major setback in remittance inflows," said Dr Islam, a former executive director of Bangladesh Bank.
siddique.islam@gmail.com