Faced with an acute energy shortage marked by steadily falling domestic gas production (by roughly 150 million cubic feet each year) and severe disruptions in imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) due to conflicts in the Middle East, Bangladesh has been carrying out exploratory drilling into deeper, untapped formations and expediting offshore bidding for unexplored blocks. Meanwhile, under the Energy and Mineral Resources Division (EMRD)'s long-term plan, the 150-well drilling and workover programme has completed 29 wells. While it identified a theoretical potential of 271 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd), it currently supplies only 126 mmcfd to the national grid missing its targeted production under the plan.
The 150-well programme faces challenges reaching its broader goals by 2031. The shortfall is primarily driven by declining output in aging gas fields, complex geological conditions and a lack of adequate infrastructure to transmit newly discovered reserves to the national grid. The premier drilling project missed its goals for several key reasons. Those involve older and major gas fields (such as Bibiyana and Titas)'s rapid depletion. This natural decline has outpaced the gains from the new wells. The state-owned BAPEX and its partner agencies have faced severe technical hurdles, including water encroachment, complex reservoir conditions, and general geological uncertainties that hindered maximum sustainable production. As reports go, approximately 77 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) of newly confirmed gas reserves located in areas like Bhola, Jamalpur, Jokiganj, and Noakhali remain completely untapped due to a lack of the necessary transmission and distribution pipelines. Energy experts have attributed these lacunae to a lack of world-class technology and advised contracting international reservoir consultants to optimise the recovery rates of existing Petrobangla fields. In addition to the technological and infrastructural gaps affecting optimal utilisation of the existing fields, policy drift over time under different governments have also played its role. Together these have prevented a serious evaluation and execution of large-scale forecasts.
Under the circumstances, to attain natural gas self-sufficiency, the government must aggressively expand exploratory drilling into deeper, untapped formations like the 5,600-meter target at the Titas Gas Field. Also, it must prioritise connecting trapped regional reserves, particularly in Bhola, directly to the national grid to alleviate supply crunches and industrial stagnation. The efforts being taken to meet the industrial as well as other demands for natural gas through expensive import of LNG are not sustainable. So, to escape this expensive as well as unpredictable --- due to LNG's price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties--- option requires strict measures to reduce leakages in the transmission network and eliminate illegal connections. It would be worthwhile to add at this point that Bangladesh's onshore gas potential is far from exhausted. Geological studies show that only about one-third of the country's onshore area has been explored, and undiscovered natural gas resources are estimated to range between 8.43 Tcf (Trillion cubic feet) and potentially upwards of 65 Tcf. So, more efforts should be there to find new reserves. Apart from the initiatives implemented and proposed by the government including deep-level exploration at existing sites to unlock untapped hydrocarbon-bearing layers, vast untouched zones remain, including the highly prospective Chittagong Hill Tracts and the southern regions like Bhola. On this score, experts have pointed out that the hilly regions have seen only 14 exploratory wells drilled compared to over 160 across the border in Tripura, India.
The good news is that the government has been procuring additional drilling rigs to equip BAPEX for aggressive exploration, and is finalising preparations to invite international oil companies (IOCs) to onshore bidding rounds. Again, Petrobangla is conducting extensive 2D and 3D seismic surveys in high-potential areas such as Blocks 7 and 9, and around the Habiganj, Bakhrabad, and Meghna fields. Also, launching of the offshore bidding round 2026' by Petrobangla would hopefully bring positive outcome this time.
