World Bank forecasts 7.0pc growth for Bangladesh in FY19

The World Bank has forecast a growth rate of 7.0 per cent for Bangladesh this fiscal year on the back of robust private investment, increased exports and remittance inflows.

The projection is lower than the Asian Development Bank’s estimate of 7.5 per cent and the government’s 7.8 per cent for fiscal 2018-19.

Driven by strong domestic demand, Bangladesh’s economy remains among the fastest growing economies in the developing world and it would grow at an even faster pace if it implemented economic reforms, the World Bank said in a new report launched in Dhaka on Tuesday.

Growth will remain resilient, underpinned by strong domestic demand and structural transformation, but there is no room for complacency, according to the latest Bangladesh Development Update.

“To achieve its growth aspirations, Bangladesh needs to create more and better jobs by boosting private investment, diversifying exports and building human capital.”

The country also needs to make doing business easier and fast-track its mega-projects, improve financial sector governance and ensure a reliable supply of electricity, the World Bank said.

“Further, sustaining its export and remittance growth will be important. It also needs to focus on improving infrastructure, urban management, and environment conservation.”

“Bangladesh is known for its remarkable progress in reducing poverty and creating opportunities for its citizens. It is among the 10 fastest growing economies in the world and has made commendable progress on human development,” said Qimiao Fan, World Bank country director for Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

“To maintain the current growth trajectory, it needs to promote entrepreneurship, innovation and structural transformation. Bangladesh should also focus on improving education, skills, nutrition and adaptability to enable its workforce to thrive in an environment of rapidly changing technology and global demands.”

The report stresses the importance of increasing resilience to a possible slowdown in major export markets or a decline in donor support to address the influx of Rohingya refugees. The country also needs to improve financial sector governance, including banking sector performance, especially the high share of non-performing loans, which reached 10.4 per cent of all loans in fiscal year 2018.  These are concentrated disproportionately in the six state-owned commercial banks that accounted for 48 per cent of total NPLs, while the 40 private commercial banks accounted for 44 per cent of NPLs.

“To realise its goals of achieving upper-middle income status, Bangladesh must make sure its economic fundamentals are sound,” said Zahid Hussain, the World Bank’s lead economist and author of the report. “As immediate measures, the country needs policies to contain inflation, correct the exchange rate, and remove interest rate distortions.”

For the first time since FY2011, Bangladesh faces a deficit in the overall balance of payments, putting pressure on the exchange rate and international reserves.  This has resulted from a substantial widening of deficits on the trade, services and income accounts.

According to a bdnews24 report, the report recommends expanding reliable electricity supply to meet the needs of a growing economy. Much progress has been made in recent years, with access to electricity increasing from 47 per cent of the population in 2009 to 80 per cent in 2017. But by 2030, electricity demand is expected to grow to 34 gigawatts, more than double the country’s current installed capacity.

This requires comprehensive reforms in the power sector, including addressing inefficiencies at different stages of power supply and distribution, and reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels. The report urges more efficient pricing and use of gas. By prioritising more efficient plants, Bangladesh can reduce idle gas capacity by 8.0 per cent and electricity shortages by 15 per cent a year.

Further, the government needs to focus on smarter pricing of electricity through a cost-based pricing mechanism, better load management, and increased efficiency in electricity generation. Better load management alone could save $1.65 billion annually in fuel cost. Bangladesh can also benefit from boosting regional trade and strengthening the cross-border electricity transmission network.