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Election results in Nepal in December, 2017 took by surprise political analysts and election observers alike. An alliance of former Maoist fighters and the Communist Party in Nepal routed the Nepali Congress Party.
2017 was a year of elections for Nepal. Implementation of this process started with the then Foreign Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat briefing a number of Kathmandu-based envoys on January 31 about the possibility of the Nepal government holding all three levels of elections - Local, Provincial and Parliamentary - by the end of the year. Mahat himself lost and his Nepali Congress party performed miserably, but the government succeeded in delivering on its promise to the international community. Elections have been held at different levels as promised.
The three-phase polls were initiated through elections of local government officials. This was soon followed by elections to Provincial Assemblies and the Lower House of the Parliament. The elections involved the entire government machinery. Over 200,000 security personnel were employed in the prolonged expensive exercise.
The Nepalese electoral process is indeed very complex. The total number of voters involved in the last two phases - Provincial and National - were about 15.4 million -7.7 million male voters and about 7.65 female voters.
There are seven Provinces with 77 electoral Districts, 275 Members to the House of Representatives and 550 Members to the Provincial Assembly. They are elected through both first-past-the post and proportional representation systems. In the House of Representatives (the Lower House), 165 are elected through first-past-the post system and 110 are through proportional representation. In the National Assembly (Upper House), 59 members are directly elected, 56 by the Electoral College and three are appointed by the President.
The first phase of the elections was held on November 26, 2017. There were 282 candidates for 37 Federal Parliament seats and 420 candidates for 74 Provincial Assembly seats. The last phase of the elections was held on December 07, 2017. There were 1663 candidates for 128 Federal Parliament seats and 2819 candidates for 256 Provincial Assembly seats. Besides, 110 Federal Parliament seats and 220 Provincial Assembly seats were decided on the basis of the proportional representation system.
Nepal, a small Himalayan State, has enhanced its national relevance in the recent past due to its geographical location. The country, sandwiched between two important regional powers - India and China, is endowed with a triangular geo-strategic paradigm.
The latest elections have created an unexpected matrix. Nepal's Left Alliance comprising of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and the Nepal Communist Party-Marxist Centre thrashed the Nepali Congress Party. The Left Alliance, a political marriage of convenience, won the contest. It ended up with 113 out of the 165 parliamentary seats.
Analysts have pointed out the causes of the failure of the Nepalese Congress Party: a) their government, for the better part of the year, did little towards the amelioration of the suffering of the people; b) the process of governance generally stagnated; c) there was an escalation in corruption; d) development projects were mostly on hold; e) survivors of the Gorkha earthquake continued to languish in neglect as State authorities prioritised polls over everything else.
Some analysts maintain that the Leftist Alliance has not as yet come up with a workable agenda and are still relying on "illusive slogans of development and prosperity" consistent with the usual socialist propaganda.
It looks like that the next Nepalese Prime Minister, the UML chieftain Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli will face a complex scenario. He began his political career as a Maoist in the early 1970s in Jhapa across the border with India's West Bengal State. At that time he was reputed to have shared views contained in slogans like "China's Chairman is Our Chairman and China's Path is Our Path" that permeated the air in neighbouring West Bengal. However, later on Oli is supposed to have embraced 'revisionism' early on and by 1990s had begun to reclaim hyper-nationalist rhetoric. The media generally believes that he is a good orator but not necessarily always with consistent democratic convictions.
Similarly, the Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda is known to be a populist with fungible beliefs. In 2000 he was well known for his 'anti-revisionist' beliefs but later on appears to have evolved as a 'revisionist' himself.
India is apparently worried about the evolving situation in Nepal against the backdrop of Chinese President Xi Jinping's Beijing Consensus dynamics exemplified through the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh have all joined the connective OBOR concept aimed at investing in infrastructural projects as a part of President Xi's peripheral diplomacy doctrine with China at its centre. It is understood that both Oli and Prachand will now try to attract enough Chinese investment for improving Nepalese infrastructure. This is expected to include building of the trans-Himalayan railways and hydroelectric projects modelled after China's Three Gorges Dam. This will mean that the economy of Nepal, unlike the past, will be looking northwards for more sustenance.
Indian economists are, however, reminding the Nepalese authorities that they need to be careful about the future dynamics. They are pointing out that massive loans in particular, require financial feasibility, political stability and sovereign guarantees. First, apart from hydroelectric potential, Nepal itself presents a high-risk enterprise in a chronically earthquake-prone zone. Nepal has little proven resource of exportable quantity and quality. Secondly, political stability may turn out to be illusory as the electorate has largely rejected the Left Alliance and endorsed the agenda of constitutional amendments in the Madhesh plains. Thirdly, over one-third of the Nepalese economy is based on remittances from unskilled and low-skilled labourers working as expatriates in volatile conditions. Consequently, sovereign guarantees of an externally dependent economy may not eventually turn out to be anything more than geopolitical significance. Last but not least, departure from the traditional path, which has guided India-Nepal relations for the past century, might encourage India to take measures to protect its traditional sphere of influence.
Commentators have pointed out that, in the context of Nepalese foreign relations, it will be difficult to continue the idea of equidistance in that country's relations with India and China. Difficulties are bound to emerge in the spheres of cultural compatibility and economic tenability. It may be recalled that the last Nepalese King Gyanendra discovered this not only to be true but also disastrous for him diplomatically.
A commentator has warned that Nepal should not forget that "Indian ports will continue to be the lifeline of the Nepalese economy. Religious, cultural, linguistic and social affinities between India and Nepal mean that a large number of poor Nepalese look towards India for permanent or seasonal employment. New Delhi is unlikely to loosen its grip in its backyard without some resistance".
Strategic analysts associated with the Nepali Congress Party have not lost time to underline that the Left Coalition has serious tasks ahead. The issues of citizenship, inclusion, representation, autonomy and language remain unaddressed in the Madhesh plains. Besides, the much- heralded Peace Process that brought Maoists into mainstream politics in 2006 is still far from complete. The Truth and Reconciliation Commission has not allegedly been able to complete its task of bringing perpetrators and victims of the decade-long armed conflict together. The Commission of Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons has also not been able to ascertain the whereabouts of victims or identify all the guilty. Consequently, effects of the armed conflict continue to fester. To this has been added the resolution of problems and issues associated with other marginalised groups such as Muslims, indigenous Janjati groups and the Dalits.
Despite all these issues, one should have faith in the people of Nepal being able to overcome existing challenges. We must not forget that Nepal, a federal State according to their new constitution passed in 2015, has been able to successfully carry out free and fair elections in all the three levels of government - federal, provincial and local.
The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.