Preparing for LDC graduation  

Bangladesh has crossed the per capita income level of $1,045 and become a lower middle-income county. The country is now in the process of graduating from the status of least developed country (LDC) to that of developing country as categorised by the United Nations (UN).

The World Bank (WB) has classified the countries into three categories on the basis of level of development. These are: low-income countries (LIC), medium-income countries (MIC) and high-income countries (HIC). On the other hand, the UN has divided nations into three categories on the basis of economic and social indicators. These are: developed, developing and least developed (LDC) countries. The level of development of a country shows how advanced it is economically, socially, and culturally.

Low-income countries (LICs) are defined by the classification established empirically by the World Bank each year in the World Development Report. For the current 2018 fiscal year, low-income economies are defined as those with a gross national income (GNI) per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $1,005 or less in 2016. In calculating gross national income (GNI) in US dollars for certain operational and analytical purposes, the World Bank uses the Atlas conversion factor instead of simple exchange rates. The method uses a three-year average of exchange rates. The borderline for a developing country being a LIC today is very close to the often quoted '2 US dollars a day per capita income' level.

Apart from per capita income level, there are some other parameters to assess the status of a country: (1) Human development level: very high, high, medium and low human development, defined by the UNDP since 1990; (2) Country indebtedness: Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) as defined by the World Bank in the 1990s; (3) Responsibility to address climate change issues: Some countries, defined by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992; (4) State of governance: Fragile States (FS), which replaced the category Low-Income under Stress (LICUS); (5) Specific geographical features: Small Island Developing States (SIDS); (6) Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs) put forward by the United Nations, and (7) Access to and weight in international trade: Small and Vulnerable Economies (SVEs) defined by the WTO in 2002.

A country should have a per capita gross national income (GNI) below the ceiling ($1,005 or less in 2016) used by the World Bank to be eligible for International Development Association (IDA) assistance. 

The 2017 List of Low, Lower-Middle, and Upper-Middle income economies includes:  Low-Income Economies ($1,025 or less) are Afghanistan, North Korea, Ethiopia, Nepal etc, Lower; Middle-Income economies ($1,026 to $4,035) are Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Cambodia, Philippines, Indonesia etc. and Upper-Middle-Income Economies ($4,036 to $12,475) are Algeria, Argentina, Belarus, Iran, Romania, South Africa, China, Thailand, Cuba, Maldives etc.

LDCs are low-income countries confronting severe structural impediments to sustainable development. They are highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks and have low levels of human assets. The LDC status is given to countries by the UN Social and Economic Council (ECOSOC) based on three interrelated criteria which evaluate the income of a country as well as its structural handicaps for sustainable development. In order to graduate from LDC to developing country, the gross national income should be GNI per capita US$1,230 or above, human asset index (HAI) 66 per cent or above and economic vulnerability index (EVI) 32 or below.

The standard GNI of a country should be US$ 1230 for graduating from the LDC group which, in case of Bangladesh, is now US$ 1272 according to Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) and US$ 1271 according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

The standard of human assets index of a country needs to be 66 or above for elevation from LDC status which is 72.8 according to CPD and 72.9 according to the BBS for Bangladesh.

In case of EVI, the standard index is 32 or less which is 25 in Bangladesh according to the CPD and 24.8 according to the BBS, meaning Bangladesh is much ahead of the standard index in all aspects.

After a country is recommended for graduation from LDC status, it enters a transition period to prepare for graduation, which normally takes three years. During this transition period, the country holds the LDC status and as such, is fully entitled to all benefits associated with the category. Specific tools exist to support graduating LDCs.

These criteria are reviewed every three years by the Committee for Development Policy (CDP) from the United Nations Development Policy and Analysis Division (UNDESA). Their distinctiveness lies not only in the acute poverty of their people, but also in the weakness of their economic, institutional, and human resources combined with geophysical handicaps.

The GNI per capita provides information on the income status of a country. GNI is equal to the gross domestic product (GDP) less primary incomes payable to non-resident units plus primary incomes receivable from non-resident units. The GNI measure used by the CDP is expressed in current United States Dollars. Values are expressed in current United States dollars, calculated according to the World Bank Atlas method and reflect an un-weighted average of three years.

The Human Asset Index assesses the human capital of a country. It is an aggregated index of four equally weighted criteria of (a) under 5 mortality rate, (b) percentage of population undernurished, (c) gross secondary enrollment ration, and (d) adult literacy rate.

The EVI is a composite index made of several indicators which are all measured and aggregated using the same min-max procedure as for the HAI but with different weights by indicator. EVI indicators assess the economic and agricultural vulnerability of a country and therefore higher the EVI, greater the vulnerability and worst the situation of the country.

The idea of the EVI is to establish indicators expressing the occurrence of shocks, both economic shock and natural shocks. As countries differ with regard to how exposed they are to shocks there are also indicators expressing the exposure to shocks. The EVI comprise currently the following indicators: instability of exports of goods and services, instability of agricultural production, population size, share of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, merchandise export concentration, homelessness due to natural disasters, etc.

In 1970, the International Development Strategy for the second United Nations Development Decade acknowledged the existence of a group of countries that required special attention and help. There are currently 47 countries in the LDC category - 33 in Africa, 13 in Asia and the Pacific and 1 in Latin America. A string of benefits are granted for an LDC country by the development partners. The benefits fall into four main areas:  (a) preferential market access; (b) special treatment regarding World Trade Organisation (WTO)-related obligations; (c) official development assistance (ODA) and other forms of development financing; and (d) technical cooperation and other forms of assistance.

The status of developing country raises prestige of a country but at the same time it deprives the country of LDC benefits in phases.

Bangladesh needs internal reform and capacity building to finance its own development programmes and to become self-dependent.

M S Siddiqui is a legal economist.

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