US politics: Democrats reclaim House, its implications

The crucial US midterm elections took place on November 6, 2018 amid apprehension of the Republicans and discontent of the Democrats over President Donald Trump's policies and actions. Voting was held for 35 seats in the Senate and for 435 positions in the House of Representatives. The outcome was to determine the balance of power in the Congress and the future direction of American government and politics.

The Democrats have gained more than enough seats to control the House of Representatives, but the Republicans have not only retained Senate majority but also solidified its control now. However, analysts believe that with Democrats' control of the House and intensive oversight of President Trump's administration, things could get hostile for him in the next two years.

The 2018 midterm is considered a big win for gender equality and racial diversity in American politics. More than 110 women have captured Congressional seats and most of them are Democrats. Two Muslim women were elected for the first time in the history of the United States. Undoubtedly, the presence of large women members in Congress is expected to have significant impact on public policy.

Since 1900, the President's party has been losing seats in the House of Representatives in all but three of the twenty nine midterm elections. Certainly, the results will now determine the future of Trump's Presidency and his policies and actions.

According to political analyst Amber Philips, four key campaign themes defined the midterm elections, i.e., the Trump presidency, immigration, healthcare and identity politics. In his election campaigns, Trump made efforts to enthuse his Republican base by his conservative policy proposals, but with an approval rating of around 40 per cent prior to the elections.

Although highly admired and supported by his loyal conservative Republican base, Trump steadily became unpopular after he took office as the 45thPresident in January 2017. Indeed, all Presidents before him during the past six decades were fairly more popular in their first term in office. In particular, Trump's agenda on healthcare and immigration have been hugely unpopular. A week before Election Day, Trump declared his intention to end prevailing birthright citizenship for the babies of non-citizens which was applauded by his supporters but inflamed the Democrats.

Historically, when a president is unpopular, voters make an assault on his party in Congress. That is exactly what happened. Troubled by a controversial President, the Republicans have lost control of the House. The reasons for their loss in the elections are numerous.

While the economy is growing at 4.2 per cent and low unemployment rate (3.7 per cent) in nearly 50 years, Trump created massive political controversy. Generally, a rapidly growing economy is no guarantee for victory for the incumbent party when dissatisfaction among the voters is immensely strong.

Trump's aggressive immigration stance and healthcare policies, repeated explosive remarks about women, the issue of gun control, his pro-Russian stance, issue of race relations, withdrawal of environment and climate policies pursued by his predecessor Barack Obama, and travel bans on several Muslim-majority countries outraged the electorate and impacted the election results. President Obama's campaign for the Democrats also had positive effect on elections.

Anti-Trump sentiments had been particularly evident among educated white women because of his inappropriate remarks on women. This drove some of them to cast their protest votes against Trump's party. The nation was also deeply divided over the contentious appointment of Judge Kavanaugh as Republicans and Democrats fought over sexual assault accusations. The women activists were outraged.

Voter turnout is always much lower in the midterm elections. But this time, turnout was remarkably greater because of higher number of voters' registration and unprecedented enthusiasm among educated young voters. According to an estimate of the New York Times, about 114 million votes were cast in the House in 2018, up from 83 million in 2014.

The moderate voters wanted a government of checks and balances rather than one overly dominated by the President and a Congress controlled by one party.

Election observers and analysts point out quite a few implications of the results of the elections. The most important ones are: first, from now until the closing two years of his term, President Trump will be confronting a hostile Democratic majority in the House. Secondly, with a majority in the House, the Democrats are in a position to effectively check President Trump's legislative agendas and foreign policy directions. Thirdly, his administration is expected to come under tougher scrutiny.

Judah Grinstein, editor-in-chief of World Politics Review, contends, "A Democratic House majority means that key Cabinet officials, and perhaps even Trump himself, will now be subjected to unhampered investigations into multiple allegations of corruption, with the strong likelihood of embarrassing revelations." It will also have impact over crucial budgeting choices that directly affect American foreign policy.

In fact, the midterm election results will probably deepen uncertainty in the American political landscape. With only the Senate majority, President Trump will be less powerful now to implement his right-wing "America first" agenda.

Dr. Kamal Uddin Ahmed is a former Professor and Chairman, Department of Political Science, University of Dhaka.

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