Resilience planning: Demographic dividend and education

What is our current and future plan with our youth? That is the defining question for Bangladesh. Digital literacy, information communication technology (ICT) proficiency and good fundamental education are tools for our future generations to secure a better life and make Bangladesh resilient. That future is depended on the condition that our current and future generations are competent, proactive and self-reliant to use these tools.

Planned and timely utilization of such young minds and their energy have been significant factors for many developed countries. The opposite trajectory of unplanned and delayed efforts to engage the youth has disrupted and halted many promising countries' rise. The mixed experiences of South Korea and Nigeria provide valuable insight into proper education planning and utilizing demographic dividend.

South Korea, after the 1950s Korean War, faced systemic labour issues. Then between 1963 and 1979, they implemented social policy reforms that delivered them their demographic dividend. The country planned simultaneous reform policies focusing on human capital investment, good governance and economic policies to absorb the dividend through economic growth in later years. From a war-torn country in 1950, South Korea is now one of the most developed countries in the world, although, it is facing the tail-end result of a large demographic dividend - a large number of senior age population. Hence the dependency ratio increases and creates pressure on socio-economic liabilities. Although, as a result of their proper utilization of their dividend they now have the socio-economic capacity to absorb the dependency issue as well.

Nigeria, with more than 200 ethnic groups, extreme poverty and political corruption, had always shown the worst indicators in terms of development. Finally, after returning to civilian rule under Obasanjo administration from 1999 to 2007, it used its vast oil resources to initiate several social and macro-economic reform policies that divergently resulted a large demographic dividend. Foreign investments and domestic consumer-based indicators all showed great promises for Nigeria. However, in recent years with the slump of oil prices Nigeria faced economic shocks. The 200 million plus population is pushing the country's infrastructures to point of systemic collapse. Moreover, lack of planning to utilize and absorb the demographic dividend created the ultimate systemic crisis -- a young population that is jobless, trapped in low wage cycle and frustrated with economic slowdown. Bangladesh also has significant young people who are unemployed and frustrated with future prospects. Even then comparatively we are still at a better state. But should we be content with our current state?

Using systems approach thinking to assess Bangladesh's dynamics from early decades helps us to assess our situation regarding youth and education: Average life expectancy has increased; the active labour force age structure has gradually changed; Bangladesh now has a relatively decreased fertility and mortality rate; and, society's mind-set shifted from having large families to smaller ones.

As systemic catalysts some of our early societal weaknesses in areas of public health, family planning, and education triggered multilateral decisions to improve the conditions of these sectors. Divergently public sector, private sector and non-government organisations (NGOs) significantly improved the macro-level conditions, given the pre-existing conditions of Bangladesh. The four dynamics mentioned above and their interactions create a time dependent-condition called demographic dividend: basically, when a country's share of its working age population is larger than its non-working age population then the country has demographic dividend.

Unfortunately, for Bangladesh the sub-set of systems that resulted this trajectory failed to anticipate the very result - the arrival of the demographic dividend. The country as a system was required to set in motion critical steps to reform relevant public policies decades ago. If initiated then we could have used evidence based forecasting to design plans to utilize our demographic dividend. Bangladesh's demographic dividend -- the working age youth -- requires an economy that can employ them, absorb their energy and without that capacity - this asset could become a liability.

Although delayed but following dynamics and their coordinated interactions could help us to limit the fallout effect of our ongoing struggle to use our demographic dividend:

i) Future demand-based primary, secondary, tertiary and vocational education policies.

ii) Economic policies for labour market flexibility and to increase trade and investment that create jobs.

iii) Policies to encourage diverse private sector credit growth rather than sectoral growth.

iv) Policies to increase the median income so real income expansion infuses more savings.

In its early decades Bangladesh experienced a divergent set of policies and under the circumstances the results were acceptable even if they were not ideal. Now, the country is almost 50 years old, the variables that made us copacetic before are not adequate any more. We can choose to ignore the limitations in our health facilities, monetary policies, fiscal measures and weak governance but we cannot afford to ignore the inadequacy in our education system. The mind-set that supported the divergent policies earlier needs to change and support a convergent policy on education.

Government is joyous with the Padma Bridge Project and the writer is as well. However, imagine if we could claim that not only we have financed the Padma Bridge on our own but also that Bangladesh has all the human capital and talent required for the project! Unfortunately, that scenario is still a cloud dream and no feasible planning from any sector is visible to address the issue of human capital development. According to the World Economic Forum's 2017 Global Human Capital Index, Bangladesh ranks 111 out of 130 countries. The index ranks countries "on how well they develop their human capital". The human capital development gap for Bangladesh and its ramifications are alarming. Countries with significant demographic dividend, combined with high level of formal and informal unemployment, faced grave systemic crisis in recent decades. For Bangladesh if this dividend is not absorbed then it could become a demographic disaster.

Our current generation and future generations should be educated and trained so that they can embrace the next generation of technologies rather than feel alien to them. As a country, we should actively seek out mega projects of education and for education. As a country if we have decided to take on expensive capital financing for various infrastructural mega-projects then we must prioritize doing the same for our education sector. A long-term education plan that can make our country resilient and competitive should be our most important national agenda.

The writer is Archer Fellow and Lee Kuan Yew Scholar. [email protected]