January–March economic growth slows to 2.22pc

Bangladesh’s economic growth in the 3rd quarter (January-March) of the last fiscal year (FY) 2025-26 has plunged severely to 2.22 per cent, down from 4.53 per cent estimated in the same period in the previous fiscal year, official data showed on Monday.

The primary driver behind this significant deceleration is a contraction in the industrial sector, alongside cooled growth across agriculture and services, the official data showed.

The massive fall in the industrial growth has affected the economic growth momentum of the country, as the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in its provisional estimation has recorded a negative 0.28 per cent rate.

In the same period 3rd quarter (Q3) of the previous FY2025, the industrial growth was recorded at 3.33 per cent, the BBS data showed.

The current figure marks a continuing downward trajectory for the just-concluded FY2026, following a 4.96 per cent growth in the first quarter and 3.03 per cent in the second quarter.

Meanwhile, the BBS, in its provisional estimation, has recently shown that Bangladesh’s GDP is likely to grow at a 41.14 per cent rate in the last FY2026, recovering from a slower 3.49 per cent in the previous FY2025.

Analysts say the slower growth in the Q3 of the last fiscal year may hamper the achievement of the 4.14 per cent overall GDP growth.

According to the BBS, the critical industrial sector experienced a negative growth rate of -0.28 per cent in the third quarter at constant prices, compared poorly to the 3.33 per cent growth recorded during the third quarter of FY2024–25.

Within this sector, manufacturing growth dipped slightly into negative territory at -0.34 per cent, while utility sectors like electricity, gas, and water supply experienced a sharp contraction of -3.56 per cent.

This industrial slump severely impacted the overall economic output during the January–March period.

Other key pillars of the economy also registered slower growth paths. The service sector, which historically carries a heavy weight in the country's GDP, grew by 3.52 per cent in Q3 FY2026.

While this remains the strongest performing macro-sector for the quarter, it represents a steep decline from the robust 7.32 per cent expansion seen in the same quarter in the previous FY2025.

Similarly, the agricultural sector recorded a growth of 1.74 per cent in Q3 FY2026. While positive, this is a sharp reduction from the 4.61 per cent growth achieved in the 3rd quarter of the previous FY2025, the BBS data showed.

In nominal terms, the estimated size of the Q3 GDP at current prices reached BDT 15,391 billion (BDT 15,391,046 million), up from BDT 14,192 billion in the corresponding period of FY2024–25.

At current prices, the sectoral share of the economy during this quarter was led by the service sector at 54.63 per cent, followed by the industrial sector at 35.51 per cent, and agriculture at 9.86 per cent.

Analysts point out that the negative growth in industrial sectors and utilities reflects ongoing constraints in domestic production, energy supply challenges, and shifting demand dynamics, requiring targeted policy interventions to revive manufacturing momentum in the final quarter of the fiscal year.

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