Bring back wheat: break the import trap

Once the second most important cereal crop in Bangladesh after rice, wheat is now steadily losing ground. Over the past decade, both acreage and production have declined significantly, even as domestic demand continues to rise. According to Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), wheat cultivation area has shrunk from 4.44 lakh hectares in 2014-15 to around 2.8 lakh hectares in 2024-25. Production has also dropped from 13.48 lakh tonnes to nearly 10.41 lakh tonnes during the same period.

This decline presents a serious concern for national food security. Bangladesh is becoming increasingly dependent on imports to meet the growing consumption of wheat-based foods. Changing dietary patterns, rapid urbanisation, and the expansion of food industries have driven demand for wheat products such as bread, biscuits, noodles, and pasta. As a result, the import burden is rising, exposing the country to global market volatility. 

Wheat in Bangladesh is not merely declining by chance; it is steadily being edged out by a combination of economic realities, environmental pressures, and institutional gaps. At the heart of this shift lies a widening profitability gap. For many farmers, wheat no longer competes with alternative crops. Maize, for instance, has emerged as a far more attractive option, driven by the rapid expansion of the poultry and livestock feed industry. Likewise, high-value vegetables offer quicker returns, multiple harvests, and stronger demand in urban markets. Faced with rising production costs and uncertain wheat prices, farmers are making rational decisions-moving towards crops that promise better and more reliable income.

Climate change has further compounded the challenge. Wheat is particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, especially during its critical grain-filling stage. In Bangladesh's context, delayed sowing-often due to the late harvesting of preceding rice crops-pushes wheat into periods of terminal heat stress. Even a slight increase in temperature at this stage can significantly reduce grain size and overall yield, discouraging farmers who already operate on thin margins. Untimely rainfall has also emerged as a significant constraint on wheat cultivation, disrupting critical growth stages and often leading to yield and quality losses. 

Beyond climate, input and management constraints remain a persistent bottleneck. Access to high-quality climate-smart seeds is still limited in many regions, many improved varieties-particularly those which are heat-tolerant and high-yielding-remain largely inaccessible to farmers, limiting their ability to sustain productivity under changing climatic conditions. Though extension services are guiding farmers on improved practices and climate-smart techniques, these often fail to reach every corner effectively. As a result, many farmers perceive wheat as a riskier and more management-intensive crop compared to its alternatives.

Equally important is the issue of market uncertainty. Unlike rice, wheat does not benefit from a strong, assured procurement system. Farmers frequently face price fluctuations and lack clear signals about future demand. Weak value chain linkages-from storage to processing-further reduce incentives. In contrast, maize and vegetables enjoy more organised market channels and consistent demand, making them safer economic bets.

Taken together, these factors create a cycle where wheat becomes progressively less attractive. Unless profitability improves, climate risks are mitigated, and market support systems strengthened, wheat will likely continue to lose ground in Bangladesh's agricultural landscape. Despite these challenges, wheat remains an essential crop for Bangladesh. It diversifies the food basket, reduces pressure on rice, and supports agro-processing industries. Reviving wheat cultivation is therefore not just an agricultural issue, but a strategic necessity. 

Newspaper reports indicate that by March of the 2025-26 fiscal year, the country had already spent Tk 223,758 million on wheat imports, suggesting that total annual expenditure may once again surpass last year's figure of Tk 224,772 million. If this upward trend in import continues, policymakers should consider adopting regulatory measures to guide crop cultivation patterns and reduce excessive reliance on imports.

Reversing the steady decline of wheat cultivation in Bangladesh demands a coordinated and multi-dimensional strategy that addresses both agronomic and economic constraints.

Investment in the development and dissemination of climate-resilient wheat varieties remains critical, even though some heat-tolerant and high-yielding varieties already exist. With rising temperatures and increasing climate variability, farmers are often exposed to terminal heat stress that severely affects yield. Promoting heat-tolerant, short-duration, and disease-resistant varieties can help farmers harvest before the onset of extreme conditions. Early maturing varieties, in particular, offer the added advantage of fitting well within existing cropping patterns, although they may entail a compromise in yield potential. Climate-smart agronomic practices must also be promoted to sustain productivity under changing environmental conditions.

Equally important is the promotion of wheat within diversified cropping systems. In Bangladesh's dominant rice-based agriculture, wheat can effectively be integrated after the Aman harvest, considering short-duration variety and if timely sowing is ensured. The adoption of mechanised practices such as strip tillage and zero tillage can significantly reduce turnaround time between crops, enabling earlier planting and better yield outcomes.

However, technological solutions alone are not sufficient unless supported by enabling policies. Enhancing the profitability of wheat cultivation must be a priority. Introducing minimum support prices (MSP) and strengthening government procurement systems can provide farmers with price assurance and reduce market uncertainty. Additionally, targeted incentives-such as input subsidies can mitigate production risks and make wheat a more attractive option compared to competing crops.

Strengthening agricultural extension services and expanding access to mechanisation are also vital components of this revival strategy. Mechanised sowing and harvesting not only reduce labour dependency but also improve efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Another critical area is the improvement of seed systems. The availability of high-quality, certified seeds at the right time remains a persistent challenge. Strengthening seed production, distribution networks, and private sector participation can ensure that farmers have access to superior varieties when needed.

Beyond production, attention must be given to value chain development. Establishing stronger linkages between farmers, millers, processors, and the food industry can create stable demand and ensure fair pricing. Exploring contract farming arrangements and fostering public-private partnerships can further enhance market integration. Strengthening domestic value chains-from production to processing-can create a more stable and rewarding ecosystem for wheat cultivation. 

Finally, sustained investment in research and innovation is indispensable. Emerging challenges such as new pests and diseases, soil health degradation, and climate-induced stresses require continuous scientific attention. Strengthening collaboration between research institutions, universities, extension department and the private sector will be key to developing adaptive solutions for the future.

Bangladesh has already achieved remarkable success in rice production through consistent policy support, research investment, and farmer engagement. A similar and more targeted approach is now needed for wheat. In the past, wheat struggled with low productivity; today, it suffers from declining attention. The window for action is narrowing. If current trends continue, the gap between domestic production and consumption will widen further, deepening dependence on external markets. Reviving wheat is not merely about bringing back a crop-it is about safeguarding food security in an uncertain world. The decline of wheat cultivation in Bangladesh is not irreversible. With the right combination of policy support, technological innovation, and market development, wheat can regain its place in the country's agricultural landscape. Reducing import dependency while ensuring nutritional and economic security should be at the heart of this revival strategy. The time to act is now-before the gap between demand and domestic production widens further.

Md. Refatul Hossain, former Additional Director, DAE and Senior Consultant, Agronochain Ltd.
refatdae87@gmail.com