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Bangladesh’s economic growth rate is estimated to drop to 6.03 per cent in the current fiscal year (FY), 2022-23, as the industrial sector’s growth plunged, official estimation showed on Thursday.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is 1.19 percentage points lower than the government’s target of 7.2 per cent for the current FY.
The GDP growth rate, however, is higher than the projected growth rates of the multilateral lenders, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB), and Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The IMF has recently forecasted Bangladesh FY 23 economic growth at 5.5 per cent, the WB at 5.2 per cent, and the ADP at 5.3 per cent.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provisional data showed that the per capita income (GNI) has been estimated at US$ 2,765, official sources told the FE on Thursday.
The sources said the total GDP size of Bangladesh has declined to $457 billion in the current price. In local currency, the GDP size is Tk 44.39 trillion, the official estimation showed.
Both the GDP size and the per capita GNI in local currency have increased than the last FY. But in USD, both the figures have gone downward than the previous fiscal, said the government officials.
Bangladesh’s GDP size in FY 2022 was $460.22 billion, and per capita income was $2,793, the BBS data showed.
Officials said growth in all the three key sectors - agriculture, industry and services – has dropped in the current FY.
According to the sources, the industrial sector’s growth in the estimated GDP for the current FY has expanded at 8.18 per cent rate, 1.68 percentage points lower than that of 9.86 per cent in the last FY.
The agriculture sector growth rate has also declined to 2.61 per cent in the current FY from that of 3.05 per cent in the last FY.
The service sector’s growth has also fallen to 5.84 per cent in the current fiscal from that of 6.26 per cent in the last fiscal, as per the official estimation.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s economy is growing well compared to other economies across the world, as it is one of the fastest growing economies.
In FY 2022, Bangladesh’s GDP grew at 7.10 per cent rate, in FY 2021 at 6.94 per cent, in FY 2020 at 3.45 per cent, and in FY 2019 at 7.88 per cent, the BBS data showed.
Policy Research Institute (PRI) Executive Director Dr Ahsan Mansur said the fall in per capita income in USD amid the 6.03 per cent GDP growth means the purchasing power of the households is declining.
How the economy grows at 6.03 per cent rate - amid huge fall of overall import and raw materials along with falling credit growth to the private sector - is a matter of research, he opined.
“We have to wait for the final estimation of the country’s GDP after this FY ends,” he added.