European energy profits expected to double thanks to West Asia war.
Earnings growth estimates, year-on-year for Q2 2026, for STOXX 600 energy companies vs. the rest of the index
What happened this week:
The US military on Wednesday launched fresh strikes after President Donald Trump said he believed an interim ceasefire with Iran to be finished, triggering Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.
That means the energy shock the conflict has delivered is far from over. Last week, shipping had only recovered to around a third of what it was before the war, and has ground to a near-halt again since Iran's attacks on vessels on Tuesday.
Gasoline and diesel markets have rallied sharply this week, as investors price in the impact of renewed conflict in the West Asia as well as a supply crisis in Russia caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure.
What the numbers show
Global oil majors and regional refiners are set to get a big earnings boost because of the disruption.
LSEG estimates show European energy earnings growth in the STOXX 600 index surging past other sectors in the second quarter; those estimates have ticked upward as the Iran war has dragged on. By contrast, growth estimates for non-energy companies in the index have stayed at around 6% since the start of the war.
US oil companies are set to report their strongest quarterly profits since 2022. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are expected to post earnings that are more than triple first-quarter levels.
What's next
An energy windfall in the US could complicate the normally warm relationship between Trump and the oil industry: it comes as pain at the pump amplifies cries for affordability from Democrats hoping to win back control of the US Congress in the November mid-term elections.
