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Lula leads Senator Bolsonaro in Brazil presidential run-off, poll shows

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a ceremony announcing deforestation data in the Amazon, in Brasilia, Brazil, June 11, 2026.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a ceremony announcing deforestation data in the Amazon, in Brasilia, Brazil, June 11, 2026. Photo : REUTERS/Adriano Machado

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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ​would win a potential second-round ‌run-off vote in the October presidential elections against opposition Senator Flavio ​Bolsonaro, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed ​on Wednesday.

Lula would receive 48.8 per cent ⁠of votes in a second ​run-off, compared with 42.3 per cent for ​Flavio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll showed.

In an April survey, ​the two candidates were tied ​at 48 per cent.

In a first-round run-off scenario Lula ‌would ⁠lead with 46.3 per cent of the votes, followed by Flavio Bolsonaro with 36.6 per cent, Renan Santos at ​7.8 per cent, Ronaldo ​Caiado ⁠at 2.9 per cent, and Romeu Zema at 2.0 per cent, the ​poll found.

The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll ​surveyed ⁠4,999 people between June 26 and 30; the poll has a ⁠margin ​of error of ​one percentage point in either direction.

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