1.4m manufacturing jobs lost in a decade

Bangladesh's productive sector has seen an impressive average annual growth rate of 10 per cent over a decade, spanning 2013-2023, but failed to translate into a corresponding rise in employment.

In fact, the manufacturing sector has shed 1.4 million jobs during this period. Economists are now urging the government to shift away from a purely growth-centric approach and adopt policies that prioritise job creation, according to new findings released Sunday by Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID).

The study shows that although both export-oriented garment and domestic manufacturing industries continued to expand in value, employment in the sector declined steadily-confirming a clear pattern of jobless growth.

In the readymade garment (RMG) sector, the country's largest employer and export earner, productivity increased sharply due to rapid technological adoption. In 2013, factories required 220 workers to produce and export goods worth US$1 million. By 2024, the same output required only 94 workers, the RAPID study notes.

"Youth unemployment is now more than double the national unemployment rate," said Dr MA Razzaque, Chairman of RAPID, while presenting the keynote paper titled 'Beyond Jobless Growth: Towards an Employment-Centred Policy Framework for Bangladesh Through a Post-Neoliberal Lens' at an event in Gulshan.

The session was jointly organised by the Research and Policy Integration for Development and the German research organisation Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES).

Dr Razzaque blames a deepening employment crisis on the previous government's policy missteps, arguing that disproportionate focus on a single sector-primarily RMG-left other industries underdeveloped.

He warns that despite an unused demographic dividend, Bangladesh is at risk of becoming an aged society within the next 15-20 years, well before achieving developed-country status. This, he says, is a major concern.

Explaining further, he notes that the share of agriculture in GDP has fallen sharply, while the share of manufacturing should have increased. This could have been a positive structural shift, as the RMG sector grew by 9.8 per cent annually and non-RMG manufacturing expanded at a nearly similar pace. However, he thinks, Bangladesh is now facing premature deindustrialisation-a challenge also confronting many African economies.

"We experienced economic expansion over the last ten years, but employment did not keep pace because policy attention remained narrowly concentrated," he told the meet.

The policy analyst emphasises the need for an employment-centred policy framework to prevent further erosion of manufacturing jobs in the coming decade.

Speaking as the chief guest, former caretaker government adviser Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman said Bangladesh had long been perceived as a resilient nation with a resilient economy. "In reality, the country is now trapped in a state of joyless resilience-meaning resilience no longer brings comfort as Bangladesh remains stuck in a continuous cycle of crises."

The session was chaired by Labour and Employment Secretary Md Sanowar Jahan Bhuiyan, while special guests included Max Tunon, Country Director of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), and Prof Saima Haque Bidisha, Pro-Vice-chancellor and Professor of Economics at the University of Dhaka.

During the discussion, Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman presented a triangular framework to analyse Bangladesh's development trajectory.

He says between 2016 and 2022, the country was trapped within a "triangle of vicious cycles"-a period when growth failed to generate adequate employment, inequality remained outside policy priorities, and governance became entangled in corruption and the influence of powerful vested groups.

He adds that a series of crises since 2022 has further deepened these vulnerabilities, exposing the country's structural weaknesses.

Dr Rahman stresses that three elements are essential to overcome the current situation- a credible election and genuine political representation, the establishment of people-centred governance, and a renewed social contract between the state and citizens.

Speaking at the event, Prof Saima Haque Bidisha highlighted that women entrepreneurs still lack adequate institutional support. She also notes that children of farming families are increasingly reluctant to pursue agriculture as a profession.

To address this, she underscores the need to create new opportunities and promote agro-based industrialisation.

She says targeted policies and incentives for the freelancing and informal sectors could significantly boost employment and drive economic growth.

During the panel discussion, AKM Fahim Mashroor, Chief Executive Officer of BDJobs, said fifteen years ago Bangladesh produced around three lakh graduates annually. Today, more than four and a half lakh graduates enter the job market each year-70 per cent of them from colleges under the National University.

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