Bangladesh economy stabilises, growth remains weak

Bangladesh has achieved a measure of macroeconomic stabilisation, but the progress has come at the cost of slower economic growth, weak investment and declining purchasing power, speakers said at a policy dialogue in the capital on Sunday.

The observations were made at the launch of the latest issue of Monthly Macroeconomic Insights (MMI), organised by the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis (CMEA) of the Policy Research Institute of Bangladesh (PRI) at its Dhaka office.

The event was chaired by Dr Zaidi Sattar, chairman of PRI. Kamran T. Rahman, president of the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI), spoke at the programme, while Dr Nasiruddin Ahmed, former chairman of the National Board of Revenue (NBR), and others commented on the keynote presentation delivered by Dr Ashikur Rahman, principal economist of PRI.

Dr Ashikur Rahman described 2026 as a year of stabilisation amid continued political uncertainty. He said foreign exchange reserves have increased, the exchange rate has stabilised, and inflation has moderated slightly. However, imports have not grown at the expected pace, indicating weak domestic demand.

He warned that with around Tk 6.4 trillion in non-performing loans (NPLs) on bank balance sheets, the economy risks being trapped in a sub-optimal equilibrium marked by high NPLs, high interest rates, high inflation, low investment and low growth, making a return to 6.0 per cent growth unlikely.

Mr Rahman said foreign exchange reserves have improved, the exchange rate has become more predictable and headline inflation eased to about 8.3 per cent in November. “However, this stabilisation has come with a clear trade-off,” he said. “Growth has slowed, investment remains weak and business confidence is cautious.”

He added that growth remains subdued as investors stay hesitant due to high borrowing costs, policy uncertainty, energy constraints and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the national election. Restoring growth, he said, would depend not only on macroeconomic indicators but also on confidence in policy predictability and the restoration of political stability.

The MCCI president also noted that persistently high food inflation continues to erode purchasing power, particularly for lower- and middle-income households. He stressed that durable inflation control would require supply-side reforms, improved market functioning and smarter trade policies alongside monetary discipline.

On fiscal issues, he said Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the region and globally, calling for an integrated taxation system to broaden the tax base, as only a small proportion of TIN holders submit tax returns.

Dr Ashikur Rahman highlighted shortcomings in rice import policy, noting that domestic prices rose by double digits despite a decline in global prices. He also pointed out that although the policy rate stands at 10 per cent, inflation remains above 8 per cent, keeping the real policy rate below 2 per cent—among the lowest in the region.

On fiscal policy, he welcomed the move to separate revenue collection from revenue policy formulation, but cautioned that despite a 15 per cent rise in revenue in the past five months, a shortfall of around Tk 650 billion could still persist by the end of the fiscal year.

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