China June data to show steady growth

Reuters | Published: July 13, 2017 10:48:03 | Updated: October 19, 2017 14:08:45

A raft of Chinese data in coming weeks is expected to show steady growth, but government measures to rein in the housing market and debt risks are likely to drag on activity over the next few quarters.

Many analysts say Beijing's deleverging campaign will pressure growth as the property sector cools in response to policy curbs, even as top leaders have pledged to maintain economic stability ahead of a key party meeting later this year.

"We expect June's data release to show overall steady growth with industrial production momentum maintained," economists at UBS said in a research note.

"Slower credit growth and higher funding costs due to supervisory tightening are expected to have an effect on fixed-asset investment and activities later in the year."

The industrial output of the second-biggest economic country is seen up 6.5 per cent in June from a year earlier, matching the rise in May, according to a Reuters poll of 34 economists.

Retail sales were expected to grow 10.6 per cent, easing slightly from a 10.7 per cent rise in May, while fixed-asset investment was predicted to increase 8.5 per cent in January-June from a year earlier, versus a rise of 8.6 per cent in the first five months, the poll showed.

China's exports are seen up 8.7 per cent in June from a year earlier, while imports are set for a 13.1 per cent rise, according to the Reuters poll, producing a trade surplus of $42.4 billion.

China's exports rose a stronger than expected 8.7 per cent in May as global demand improved, while imports jumped 14.8 per cent despite falling commodity prices.

China will release second-quarter gross domestic product(GDP) on July 17, along with June industrial output, retail sales and January-June fixed asset investment.

China's producer price index (PPI)) is tipped to rise 5.5 per cent in June from a year earlier, flat from May when factory gate inflation eased for the third straight month on tumbling raw materials prices.

The consumer price index (CPI) is seen up 1.5 per cent year-on-year in June, also matching that in May, when consumer inflation quickened from April's 1.2 per cent, according to Reuters.

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