Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 13 per cent on Friday, jacking up the cost of borrowing for the third meeting in succession in response to a weak rouble and other persistent inflationary pressures.
A month ago, responding to the rouble tumbling past 100 to the dollar and a public call from the Kremlin for tighter monetary policy, the bank had hiked rates by 350 basis points to 12 per cent at an emergency meeting.
On Friday, it gave hawkish guidance that it would consider further rate increases at upcoming meetings and said inflationary risks remained significant.
"Significant proinflationary risks have crystallised, namely domestic demand growth outpacing output expansion capacity and the depreciation of the rouble in the summer months," the bank said in a statement.
The decision to raise rates was in line with a Reuters poll.
MORE HIKES TO COME?
Russia has gradually reversed an emergency hike to 20 per cent which it made in Feb 2022 after Moscow despatched troops to Ukraine and the West imposed sweeping sanctions, bringing rates to as low as 7.5 per cent this year.
But as a sharp weakening of the rouble fuelled inflationary risks from a tight labour market, strong consumer demand and Moscow's wide budget deficit, the central bank has been forced into a tightening cycle that began in late July.
The central bank adjusted its year-end forecast for inflation to 6.0-7.0 per cent from 5.0-6.5 per cent. Annual inflation was running at 5.33 per cent as of Sept 11, above the 4 per cent target.
Capital Economics said it was not convinced inflation would return to the bank's 4 per cent target in 2024, and expected more rate hikes to come.
"Russia's central bank is a hawkish institution that takes its commitment to inflation fighting seriously," said Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach. "With fiscal policy set to remain loose, the economy likely to continue overheating and inflation pressures to build further, there will be more pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy."
The bank upgraded its 2023 key rate range forecast to 9.6-9.7 per cent from 7.9-8.3 per cent. It now sees this year's current account surplus at $45 billion, up from $26 billion previously.
The bank kept its 2023 economic growth forecast at 1.5-2.5 per cent, but warned the economy had now completed its recovery phase and that supply-side constraints, namely the tightening labour market, would limit further growth.
Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will shed more light on the bank's forecasts and policy in a media briefing at 1200 GMT.
The next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for Oct 27.