India Feb inflation likely hits four-month low

The retail inflation of India likely eased to a four-month low in February on softening prices for vegetable and other perishable foods, a Reuters poll showed.

The inflation likely to fall but probably stayed above the Reserve Bank of India’s target, the poll showed.

The annual increase in the consumer price index likely slipped to 4.80 per cent in February from 5.07 per cent the previous month, according to the poll of 30 economists.

The forecast range was 4.36-5.60 per cent.

The February inflation data is due at 1200 GMT on Monday, March 12, reports Reuters.

If the data matches the consensus, February’s pace will be the lowest since October, and down from a 17-month high in December, but still above the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target for a fourth month.

And the small reprieve, if it comes, won’t likely last long. The central bank expects inflation to pick up to 5.1-5.6 per cent in April-September and then ease later on anticipation of for normal rainfall.

Annual wholesale price inflation also likely eased to 2.50 per cent in February from 2.84 per cent in January, the poll showed.

Separately, the poll showed industrial production likely rose 6.7 per cent in January from a year earlier, less than December’s 7.1 per cent growth.

The industrial output in eight core infrastructure industries, which account for about 40 per cent of overall industrial production, rose 6.7 per cent in January from a year ago.