Climate refugees: Will Bangladesh lead the world's first mass migration crisis?

Bangladesh is at the forefront of a burgeoning global crisis. Every year, thousands of Bangladeshis are forced to leave their habitat due to frequent natural hazards, such as flooding and cyclones, which are exacerbated by climate change.

What was once considered environmental degradation is now turning into a global crisis. It is estimated that a few million people living in coastal areas are displaced annually.

Due to Bangladesh's low-lying geography and position in the Bay of Bengal, it is considered one of the world's first mass climate migrations. Climate change is no longer a future threat for Bangladesh but rather a haunting reality, forcing people to abandon their homes.

Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries on earth, facing the risk that over 13 million people in coastal areas will leave their homes by 2050. It is affected by river and coastal flooding, sea-level rise, storm surges, and droughts.

Several million people have been displaced each year by the effects of disasters in Bangladesh. Approximately one-third of Bangladesh lies a few meters above sea level. If global warming continues at its current pace, sea levels could rise by up to 1 meter by the end of the century.

In 2011, in the South-Western region of Bangladesh, around 60,000 people were displaced by coastal flooding caused by sea-level rise. 25,000 of these displaced persons were forced to live on a 25-kilometre-long embankment.

The devastating floods occurring over the past few years have left around 4.5 million people destitute. 

Another cause of mainland displacement is riverbank erosion.

The government estimates that several thousand hectares of land are lost to riverbank erosion, resulting in thousands of people becoming homeless each year.

Poor water management across the river borders has affected 179 sub-districts in mainland Bangladesh. Around 26 per cent of the population has relocated to various areas within Bangladesh, including the capital city, Dhaka, while many have crossed international borders.

Every year, a quarter of the country suffers inundation, which has led to substantial damage to infrastructure and property. This also disrupts people's livelihoods and causes massive destruction in our agricultural sector.

Rising sea levels not only cause coastal erosion but also contaminate water and reduce farmland fertility. Such a situation brings a serious threat to the country's rice cultivation, one of our staple food sources. Hence, people are constantly migrating from rural to urban areas.

This is putting immense pressure on urban infrastructure and on economic issues such as unemployment and housing shortages.

It shows that climate change in Bangladesh is not only causing mass migration but also a crisis of food, security, public health, and sustainable development.

It is nearly impossible to determine whether a displaced individual has migrated solely due to climate change. However, Bangladesh is increasingly exposed to natural hazards, which proves that, indeed, most displacement is caused by climate change. 

Over the past few decades, Bangladesh has been among the world's fastest-growing economies. This growth has reduced poverty and increased life expectancy, education, and food security. However, the effects of climate change are causing a huge setback to this development.

Nearly 60 per cent of Bangladeshis rely on agriculture for their livelihood. Due to climate change, one-third of agricultural GSP could be lost, leading to devastation of the country's economy.

The increasing frequency and severity of climate events threaten Bangladesh's progress in combating hunger. Massive internal migration is also causing urban overcrowding, loss of livelihoods, economic decline, health issues, and severe social vulnerability.

This crisis pushes millions into a cycle of poverty. It creates a need for immediate and long-term aid for the displaced and the cities hosting them.

Insufficient infrastructure and governance mechanisms will be stretched even further, potentially leading to a decline in living standards and an increase in social disorder. 

To recover from the climate refugee crisis in Bangladesh, a multipronged approach combining national policy, community-led adaptation, and international support is necessary.

The government should tackle displacement through climate-resilient housing, which provides homes, survival skills training, and livelihood rehabilitation.

Instead of forcing migrants into already congested city slums, we must aim to build migrant-friendly towns. To protect our agricultural sector, we should focus on distributing saline-tolerant, flood- and drought-resistant seeds to farmers in coastal areas.

Since climate refugees are not legally recognised, a national law to ensure their rights should be implemented. Securing international donor funds and creating a climate justice fund to support rehabilitation and cover the costs of damage are key steps. The issue is no longer whether Bangladesh will face a mass migration crisis but whether it and the world will be ready when it does.

The author is currently studying at the Department of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience at the University of Dhaka. She can be found at elmaahmed603@gmail.com