Bangladesh must navigate India-Pakistan tensions with caution: Former ambassador

As India and Pakistan teeter on the brink of war, top government functionaries in Bangladesh must tread carefully in diplomatic relations—or risk being pulled into the crossfire, warns Ambassador Munshi Faiz Ahmad.

Reflecting on the recent incidents of people being pushed into Bangladesh along the border, he said: "Statements from our side, as well as from theirs, have been varied and potentially provocative. These push-in incidents could lead us into diplomatic traps at any moment, further deteriorating relations."

The veteran diplomat emphasised that no country can replace another in international diplomacy.

"Attempting to improve ties with Pakistan does not mean antagonising India," Munshi Faiz said.

"Assuming that Pakistan’s support negates the need for India would be a dangerous and self-destructive miscalculation,” he continued. “Maintaining healthy and balanced relations with India, grounded in mutual respect and equality, is essential for Bangladesh."

Munshi Faiz, former chairman of the Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BIISS), made these remarks during an appearance on bdnews24.com's interview programme "Inside Out".

It was broadcast on bdnews24.com’s Facebook page and YouTube channel on Friday and is available on both these social media platforms.

During the discussion, he analysed a range of regional issues, including Bangladesh’s diplomatic positioning amid the ongoing India-Pakistan hostilities, relations with China and Pakistan, potential humanitarian corridors in Myanmar, and the Rohingya crisis.

WIDER REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Following a devastating attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir last month, Indian forces retaliated on Wednesday with missile strikes on multiple targets in Pakistan, launching "Operation Sindoor". This military action has brought these two nuclear-armed neighbours dangerously close to war.

Over the three days of conflict, numerous civilians were killed on both sides. Airspaces were closed, flights cancelled, and schools shut down across affected regions. Sporadic border skirmishes and trading of blame continue to heighten tensions.

Faiz warned, “This conflict will severely impact our entire region, and Bangladesh will not escape its consequences. Since the 5th of August, we've struggled to stabilise relations with India. Trade and mobility were already suffering, and now the outbreak of hostilities makes the situation more complicated.”

RISKS FOR BANGLADESH

Highlighting the specific threats Bangladesh faces, he explained: “The immediate disruption will severely impact trade with both India and Pakistan. Trade routes, including those to Sri Lanka and beyond, will be disrupted.

“Given that global commerce is already suffering due to conflicts like Ukraine-Russia, another war in South Asia would significantly compound the difficulties.”

He drew parallels to the global disruption caused by the US-initiated trade wars: “President Trump's tariff wars have already severely disrupted global trade. The current Indo-Pakistani conflict adds yet another layer of turmoil, exacerbating uncertainty.”

POSSIBILITY OF NUCLEAR ESCALATION?

While concerns persist about a possible nuclear escalation, the former top diplomat in Beijing downplayed such fears. He explained, “Both countries indeed possess nuclear weapons, so the threat exists in theory—but realistically, it remains distant. Pakistan maintains a ‘first-strike’ policy, whereas India has pledged a policy of no-first-use.”

He elaborated, “Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is closely monitored and indirectly controlled by the US, which wouldn't easily relinquish that control. Therefore, the risk remains minimal.”

“Countries profit from arms sales during conflicts. However, when nuclear risks loom, even those nations prefer intervention to escalation.”