GED stresses urgent, coordinated reforms before loss of opportunity

Planning Commission's General Economics Division (GED) has cautioned that Bangladesh risks squandering its demographic dividend unless urgent and coordinated reforms are undertaken to address rising youth unemployment and emerging social vulnerabilities.

In a report, titled "Harnessing the Potential of Youth: A Policy Framework for Youth Development in Bangladesh," released recently by the GED has said that 31.6 million young people aged 15-24 in Bangladesh, nearly one-fifth of the total population, stand at a critical crossroads, where they could either accelerate economic growth or contribute to rising social instability.

Although the headline youth unemployment rate appears moderate at 8.07 per cent, the situation is far more severe among educated youth, while educated unemployment rate, particularly those graduated from the National University, reaches 28.24 per cent.

More critically, around 19.54 per cent of young people, approximately 5.52 million, are classified as Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET), indicating a deeper form of labour-market exclusion beyond conventional unemployment.

The GED identifies a structural mismatch between education output and labour-market demand as the core challenge. While tertiary enrolment has expanded rapidly, the quality and relevance of education have not kept pace with industry needs.

The report notes that nearly 900,000 of the country's 2.6 million unemployed people in 2024 hold university degrees, reflecting a growing phenomenon of "credential inflation" -- where the supply of general degrees exceeds labour -market demand.

Alongside, there are shortages of skilled workers in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) fields.

According to the GED, this imbalance is driven by declining public investment in education, and insufficient emphasis on technical and vocational education and training (TVET).

Public spending on education had fallen from 2.08 per cent of GDP in FY2021-22 to 1.69 per cent in FY2024-25. At the same time, families have spent an estimated $2-3 billion over the past nine years on overseas education, reflecting concerns over domestic education quality.

TVET sector receives only 4.6 per cent of the total spending from the government for education despite better job prospects.

Beyond employment challenges, the report highlights a range of interconnected social risks linked to youth marginalization, while 8.3 million people are affected by substance abuse, with 80 per cent aged between 18 and 35.

Online gambling already involves over 5 million users while most of them are among youth, reveals the report with a projection that the number could rise to 20 million by 2027 if unchecked.

In urban areas, particularly Dhaka, around 50 youth gangs are active, often associated with drug networks.

Gender-based violence also remains widespread, with 84 per cent of women reporting harassment and 90 per cent of girls aged 10-18 experiencing abuse in public spaces, reveals the report.

"Unemployment provides the idle time and economic frustration that makes quick wealth promises from gambling attractive and increases vulnerability to substance abuse," the report reads.

About 55 per cent of youth aged 18-35 are actively seeking opportunities to migrate abroad, report adds.

To address these challenges, the GED calls for a "whole-of-government" approach to overcome fragmented interventions.

It recommends establishing an independent quality- assurance mechanism in higher education, strengthening and elevating TVET, and aligning skills development with labour- market demand.

The report also urges a shift from enforcement-driven approaches to a public health model in addressing drug addiction, drawing on international experience such as Portugal.

In addition, it proposes institutionalising youth participation through councils at ward, upazila and national levels with meaningful decision-making authority.

The GED cautions that recent youth-led movements, including those in July 2024, reflect growing frustration over limited economic opportunities and exclusion from governance.

"Without decisive reforms and increased public investment, Bangladesh may miss its demographic window, with long-term implications for growth and social stability," the report concludes.

"While the headline unemployment rate in Bangladesh may appear low, the real crisis lies in the quality of employment, stagnant income levels, and the lack of skill-based opportunities," says AKM Fahim Mashroor, Chief Executive Officer of Bdjobs.com and former president of BASIS.

Observing that the country's higher education system is inadvertently fueling an "educated unemployed" class, he says the share of university graduated on the labor market reached 10 per cent in the last fiscal year, which was only 3.8 per cent in 15 years ago.

He also points out a significant supply-demand imbalance as the annual influx of graduates has tripled from approximately 0.25-0.30 million to 0.75 million.

He specifically has highlighted the vulnerability of students from the 2,200 colleges under the National University, which produce around 0.45 million graduates annually.

He urges pivoting toward market-driven vocational training in the field of modern agriculture, technical services, professional cooking, or driving, to ensure they are employable in both domestic and international labor markets.

jahid.rn@gmail.com