Rooftop solar target in Bangladesh faces tight timeline, capacity hurdles

Amid the ongoing energy crisis in Bangladesh, the government’s announcement of a new programme to install rooftop solar capacity of 3,000 megawatts (MW) by December 2025 comes as a boost to the sector, a new briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) finds.

However, the note questions whether the target is overly ambitious, given that Bangladesh installed only 245 MW of rooftop solar capacity between June 2008 and June 2025. This means the country must ramp up efforts by more than 12 times to achieve 3,000 MW by December 2025.

“As government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer adequate sanctioned load to install 3,000 MW of rooftop solar, the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should assess and document rooftop solar potential in these buildings,” says Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh and the author of the note.

“Furthermore, fund allocation for various projects, tendering, evaluation of bidding documents, issuing work orders, and project implementation will likely require an extension of the December 2025 deadline,” adds Alam.

The note highlights that only 15–20 high-quality Engineering, Procurement and Construction companies operate in the country, and they may not have the capacity to install 3,000 MW in less than six months.

Under Bangladesh’s new rooftop solar programme, government offices will roll out installations via the CAPEX model supported by public funds, while hospitals and educational institutions will operate under the OPEX model with no upfront cost.

Alam lists the pros and cons of both models. “While the CAPEX model allows for faster rollout and higher savings, there could be risks stemming from poor coordination, lack of maintenance, and rushed developer selection. On the other hand, the OPEX model ensures quality but offers lower savings, and could face financing hurdles and risks from load-shedding in rural areas. If projects are small and scattered in rural areas, they may fail to attract companies to invest in the OPEX model,” he says.

The note highlights the risk of soiling, which could significantly reduce annual solar energy yield, and calls on the government to instruct public offices to create a fund from monthly savings in projects under the CAPEX model and enter long-term maintenance contracts with service providers. The note also underscores that utilities should find a way to address load-shedding in rural areas, as the resulting solar generation loss could pose risks under the OPEX model.

The note further suggests that Bangladesh can draw on the experience of neighbouring countries such as India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, which have a greater share of renewable energy in their power mix, ranging from 47 per cent to 63 per cent. For instance, Pakistan’s rooftop solar sector success shows that push factors such as energy shortages and unaffordable power tariffs can drive change.

In Sri Lanka, the government addressed financing barriers to expand rooftop solar with support from a multilateral agency. Later, the government provided funds for rooftop solar on public buildings. Similarly, India’s rooftop solar capacity of more than 18 gigawatts in May 2025 can be attributed to consistent policy and regulatory support from the government.

“As Bangladesh’s rooftop solar sector is still at a nascent stage, capacity development of key stakeholders and government agencies will be important for the programme’s success. Besides, the government should establish an independent monitoring mechanism to ensure that projects operate smoothly,” emphasises Alam.

sajibur@gmail.com