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Bangladesh's ocean-going trade with China is expanding at an unexpectedly rapid pace despite a striking overall imbalance with the volume of shipments bound for China being very low.
The model is so unusual that shipping executives describe it as a rare exception to industry norms.
Yet, carriers are still adding vessels and capacity to meet Bangladesh's growing appetite for Chinese imports.
Direct shipping services between Chattogram, the country's main seaport, and major Chinese hubs, such as Shanghai, Ningbo, and Zhoushan, began a few years back.
But the route has since grown into one of the most heavily trafficked corridors for Bangladesh, driven overwhelmingly by its import-dependent manufacturing sector.
Ordinarily, container shipping relies on balanced two-way trade to remain profitable.
Filling ships in both directions helps carriers spread costs, stabilise freight rates, and maintain service reliability.
In contrast, Bangladesh's exports to China are "meagre" compared with the volume of imports, according to port officials and carriers operating on the route.
Shipments bound for China represent only a fraction of the cargo arriving from the world's second-largest economy.
Industry data shows imports from China exceed exports by more than 25 times every month, a gap that analysts say is one of the widest for any regular container service in Asia.
Yet, the imbalance has not discouraged major regional carriers.
Instead, they have adapted their business model in ways unusual for container shipping - repositioning empty boxes from other global ports, carrying them to China at their own cost, and then using Chinese export cargo to make the return journey viable.
"On most routes, carriers cannot afford to move a significant number of empty containers over such long distances," says Anis Ud Dowla, a senior executive director of HR Shipping Lines.
"But Bangladesh's import flow from China is so strong, and demand so consistent, that it justifies the repositioning. It is not common, but the economics work," he argues.
China has long been Bangladesh's largest source of industrial raw materials, machinery, chemicals, consumer goods, and intermediate inputs for the garment sector, which accounted for more than 75 per cent of the country's export earnings in the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Everything - from textile machinery and dyes to mobile phones, solar panels, and home appliances - arrives from Chinese ports.
This dependence has deepened over the past decade as Bangladeshi manufacturers have shifted to more sophisticated production requiring Chinese components.
The pandemic-era supply chain realignments, including container shortages and port congestion in Singapore and Colombo, strengthened the case for direct China-Chattogram services.
Bangladeshi importers say the new route saves both time and uncertainty.
Before direct sailings were introduced, most shipments had to be trans-shipped via Singapore or Colombo, often causing delays of one to two weeks.
Direct services cut the turnaround time substantially, even though the China-Chattogram leg is several hundred nautical miles longer than the traditional link via Singapore.
"For garments and consumer goods, timing is everything," says Anwar Alam Chowdhury Pervez, managing director of Evince Group, a leading maker of clothes.
"If cargo sits in Singapore, waiting for a connecting vessel, that costs money for loading and stay charges there. Direct sailings give predictability, and that is what shippers are paying for," he says.
"We can receive goods even within 14 days of the order," he adds.
Four dedicated services now operate between Chattogram and the key Chinese ports.
These services involve more than 20 vessels, many in the 1,200-2,500 TEU range, representing nearly 25 per cent of all monthly vessel calls at Bangladesh's main port.
Unlike conventional routes where outbound and inbound traffic are closely matched, carriers on the China-Bangladesh corridor are innovating a business model centred around empties.
Containers are repositioned from other regions where surplus boxes pile up - often Middle Eastern or Southeast Asian ports - and then moved empty to Chinese export hubs.
The carriers then load lucrative Chinese outbound cargo bound for Bangladesh.
The imbalance also means that freight pricing on the direct route diverges sharply from other Asian corridors.
A slot on a direct China-Chattogram service costs around $2,000, compared with roughly $600 on the Chattogram-Singapore route.
Yet, shippers say the time savings and improved reliability offset the higher cost, particularly for garment factories with tight delivery schedules.
"This trade lane defies conventional logic," says a Dhaka-based logistics analyst.
"Usually, carriers avoid routes where export-to-import ratios are skewed this much because it becomes uneconomical. But China's dominance as a supplier and Bangladesh's reliance on its inputs have made this route commercially viable despite the imbalance."
Bangladesh's exports to China are constrained by several structural factors.
The country primarily exports ready-made garments, leather, frozen fish, jute goods, and light manufacturing items - products that face intense competition in the Chinese market.
While China is a major global importer, Bangladesh struggles to penetrate due to quality requirements, market access barriers, and limited promotional efforts.
In 2020, China granted Bangladesh duty-free access for 97 per cent of tariff lines, a move intended to boost exports.
But the utilisation of the facility remains low.
Exporters say compliance costs, product standards, packaging requirements, and logistical issues hinder large-scale penetration.
"Bangladesh can import containers full of electronics and inputs from China. But when it comes to sending goods the other way, our product basket is too narrow and value addition is still limited," says Dr M Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh.
Even as exports lag, the demand for imports continues to accelerate due to Bangladesh's industrialisation and expanding consumer market.
The result is a maritime trade pattern rarely seen elsewhere - a high-frequency, heavily one-sided route that remains profitable.
The rise of the direct route has broader implications beyond the shipping industry.
Bangladesh's growing dependence on Chinese imports strengthens economic ties at a time when both countries are deepening engagement through trade, infrastructure, and investment.
Dr Reaz says the direct shipping link aligns with the country's ambition to position Chattogram as a regional maritime hub.
He also says frequent direct connections with Chinese ports could attract logistics investments and reduce supply chain costs over time.
jasimharoon@yahoo.com