Extreme weather could wipe out BD's $27b apparel export by 2030

A latest global study warns that extreme heatwaves and flooding pose a grave threat to the projected apparel-export earnings of four Asian nations, including Bangladesh, with a potential loss of US$ 65 billion by 2030.

It warns that Bangladesh alone may face a US$27 billion worth of export wipeout and 250,000 job losses in its fashion-manufacturing industry.

The study, conducted by Cornell University's Global Labor Institute in collaboration with global asset-management-firm Schroders, analysed the economic impact of climate breakdown - specifically, extreme heat and flooding - on apparel manufacturers and workers.

It revealed that "extreme heat and flooding will result in significant disruption days and production losses, slowing down the industry's growth and putting US$27 billion worth of apparel exports at risk - equivalent to a 22 per cent decline - between now and 2030."

Heat and flooding will result in nearly 250,000 fewer jobs created in Bangladesh, due to slower growth from lost production, it showed.

Researchers looked at the climate-vulnerable apparel industries in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan and Vietnam, which collectively represent 18 per cent of global apparel exports, house approximately 10,000 apparel and footwear factories and employ 10.6 million workers.

Using projections, researchers analysed future heat and flooding levels for these four countries to estimate industry-level outcomes for 2030 and 2050 by comparing a 'climate adaptive' scenario with a 'high heat and flooding' scenario.

They also mapped the supply chain footprint of six global apparel brands across the four production centres - findings show workers and manufacturers for all six face productivity impacts from extreme heat and flooding.

The overall fall in productivity would lead to a $65 billion shortfall in projected earnings between 2025 and 2030 - equivalent to a 22 per cent decline - and 950,000 fewer jobs being created, the study found.

By 2050, lost export earnings would reach 68.6 per cent and there would be 8.64 million fewer jobs.

The study identified Dhaka and Chattogram as regions with high exposure to heat and humidity in an analysis of 32 apparel production centres.

Projections show that Dhaka will have 20 per cent of days exceed a wet-bulb globe temperature reading of 30.5°C in 2030, at which point workers require as much rest as work in an hour in order to maintain safe core body temperatures.

"This rose to 29 per cent of annual exceedance days for 2050. For Chattogram, these figures were 14 per cent of days for 2030 and 23 per cent for 2050," it added.

The same exercise measured flood risk and found that Dhaka and Chattogram are also at high risk of exposure to riverine (river and rainfall) flooding, with the analysis revealing that in Dhaka, 37 per cent of the population would be inundated with up to 0.5m of flooding in a ten year period by 2030.

For Chattongram this figure is higher, at 40 per cent, according to the report.

"Heat and flooding have implications on worker's health and income," read the report.

In some cases, factory production halts and flooding can cause road blockages and delay workers from getting to work, resulting in lost working days.

Citing interviews, it said Dhaka and Chattagram-area factories were reported sending boats out to get workers.

munni_fe@yahoo.com