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As the world braces for a turbulent 2025 shaped by geopolitical unrest, climate threats, and economic uncertainty, Bangladesh must act fast to shield its economy from deepening headwinds.
This was the core message from the 30th Annual Council of the International Chamber of Commerce - Bangladesh (ICCB), held in Dhaka on Saturday, where business leaders and economic experts gathered to chart a path through an increasingly unstable global landscape.
Presenting a detailed report on behalf of the Executive Board, ICCB President Mahbubur Rahman warned that the combination of external shocks, ranging from Red Sea disruptions and regional conflicts to rising economic nationalism, poses significant challenges for developing economies like Bangladesh.
Coupled with domestic vulnerabilities, including soaring inflation, weakening investor confidence, and a fragile financial sector, the stakes have never been higher, he added.
The ICCB Council stressed the need for urgent policy reforms, smarter trade strategies, and regional cooperation to navigate these complexities and safeguard future growth.
As the world continues to face a volatile mix of geopolitical tensions, climate risks, and economic disruptions, it underscored the urgent need for Bangladesh to adapt strategically in order to navigate the complex challenges of 2025.
The global backdrop remains unstable - marked by the Red Sea crisis, ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and a resurgence of economic nationalism, especially following the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency.
The Council noted that the global economy is expected to grow by just 2.8 per cent in 2025, with the US-China trade war further aggravating uncertainties. Inflationary pressures and protectionist policies risk fragmenting global supply chains, an alarming trend for developing economies such as Bangladesh.
In this context, Bangladesh's economy faces significant headwinds. The World Bank projects GDP growth to slow to 3.3 per cent in FY2024-25, while the IMF and ADB forecast growth at 3.8 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively.
High inflation, exceeding 10 per cent overall and 14 per cent for food, combined with declining investment and political uncertainty, has deepened the economic slowdown.
A major concern is the fragile state of Bangladesh's financial sector. Non-performing loans (NPLs) hit a record Tk 3.45 trillion by December 2024, with state-owned banks the worst affected.
Nineteen banks have reported a capital shortfall of Tk 1.71 trillion, prompting the interim government to initiate banking reforms, including board dissolutions, bank mergers, and stronger oversight.
The ICCB also addressed the implications of Bangladesh's planned graduation from least developed country (LDC) status by November 2026.
With the likely loss of preferential trade terms, especially in the RMG sector, the country risks facing tariffs of up to 11.5 per cent in major markets such as the EU and the UK.
The Council emphasised the importance of a transition strategy to safeguard export competitiveness and maintain foreign investment flows.
In addition to banking and trade concerns, the Council highlighted several key challenges: Energy Security: Rising costs from increased reliance on imported fossil fuels and currency depreciation require urgent domestic exploration and investment in renewables; Fiscal Pressure: With a tax-to-GDP ratio below 10 per cent, revenue mobilisation remains weak. The restructuring of the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is expected to improve efficiency and fiscal space; Climate and Food Security: Ranked among the most climate-vulnerable nations, Bangladesh faces serious risks from floods, droughts, and salinity intrusion. Climate change may cut annual GDP growth by 2 per cent if not addressed; FDI and Export Diversification: FDI remains far below regional peers, at $3 billion in 2023 compared to Vietnam's $39 billion. Export reliance on garments must be reduced by promoting sectors like pharmaceuticals, agro-processing, and IT; Cybersecurity: As the digital economy expands, the threat of cyberattacks grows. The ICCB urged swift action to strengthen national cybersecurity infrastructure and regulation; U.S. Tariffs: A proposed 37 per cent tariff on Bangladeshi exports to the US could severely affect RMG exports and job creation. The ICCB suggested forming a task force under the Ministry of Commerce to negotiate fairer trade terms and ensure continuity of access.
Finally, the Council emphasised the potential of the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) corridor to enhance regional connectivity and trade. With improved infrastructure and stronger cooperation, BBIN's combined GDP could reach $8.3 trillion by 2035, positioning Bangladesh as a strategic transit hub.
President Mahbubur Rahman reiterated ICC Bangladesh's commitment to supporting reform, resilience, and regional integration as key pillars for sustainable economic recovery.
The ICCB Council approved the auditor's report of 2024 and appointed an auditor for the year 2025.
The High Commissioner of Brunei Darussalam, Haji Haris Bin Haji Othman; the Ambassador of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, U Kyaw Soe Moe; the Chargé d'Affaires of Argentina, Maximiliano Romanello; and Senior Economic Officer Asian Development Bank Barun Kumar Dey attended the meeting as special guests.
The meeting was also attended, among others, by the ICCB Vice President Naser Ezaz Bijoy; ICCB Executive Board Members: Kutubuddin Ahmed, Anwar-ul-Alam Chowdhury (Parvez), Aftab Ul Islam, FCA; Mir Nasir Hossain, Kamran T. Rahman, Sayeed Ahmed, Mahmud Hasan Khan, Mohammed Hatem and Showkat Aziz Russell; ICCB Members: Azim Group Chairman Mohammad Fazlul Azim, FICCI President Zaved Akhtar; DCCI Sr. Vice President Razeev H Chowdhury; Arlinks Limited Chairman and MD Imran Faiz Rahman, DBL Ceramics Limited Managing Director Mohammad Abdul Jabbar, ETBL Securities & Exchange Ltd. Managing Director & CEO Rizwan Rahman; Ha-meem Group Director Sajid Azad; Meghna Group of Industries Chairman & Managing Director Mostafa Kamal, New Zealand Dairy Products Bangladesh Limited Managing Director Mohammad Samsul Alam Mallick, Summit Alliance Port Limited Managing Director Syed Ali Jowher Rizvi; Islam Aftab Kamrul & Co Managing Partner AKM Kamrul Islam; United Insurance MD Khawja Manzer Nadeem; Green Textile MD Tanvir Ahmed; Swisscontact Country Director Md. Helal Hussain, Tyser Risk Management Bangladesh Ltd. Managing Director S. M. Moinul Islam, Karnaphuly Ins. Co. CEO ANM Fazlul Karim Munshi; DSE COO & MD Mohammad Asadur Rahman; ICCB Banking Commission Chairman Muhammad A. (Rumee) Ali; and ICCB Secretary General Ataur Rahman.
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