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The Bangladesh Food Security Monitoring Bulletin is prepared by the Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) unit of the World Food Programme (WFP). The bulletin is published by the WFP Bangladesh Country Office, four times a year. It mainly focuses on developments affecting food security in Bangladesh. The current bulletin covers the quarter of April to June 2017. Some of its observations on food sector (at times paraphrased) follows.
ENVIRONMENT: The report kicks off with a note on the environmental condition during the quarter under review. In the agricultural calendar, Boro paddy and wheat are harvested in the April-May period. Coincidently, this is also the planting period for Aus paddy, cultivated during March to May, so that the varieties benefit from summer rain.
Rainfall during the quarter was unstable. For example, April 2017 had about 260 mm rainfall which was 99 per cent higher than normal. Critics call it a result of climate change. Notwithstanding the issue of causality, such heavy and intense rainfall triggered flash flood in the greater Sylhet region and adjacent districts, inundating vast areas of standing Boro rice. However, rainfall in May and June 2017 was close to normal.
The average temperature during the quarter was close to the normal and was favourable for the planting of Aus paddy and also for seed-bed preparation for Aman paddy.
RETAIL PRICE OF FOOD: The national average retail prices of coarse rice had already been creeping up and the flash floods in the greater Sylhet region just added fuel to the flame. Prices of rice for the quarter were 15 per cent higher compared to the previous quarter and about 56 per cent higher than in the same period a year ago. Prices of whole meal wheat flour (atta) showed a stable pattern during the quarter, at around Tk31 a kg. The price of palm oil was also stable, and that of lentils (masur) decreased during the period.
INFLATION: General inflation is generally measured by the point to point variation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The bulletin reveals that the index continued to increase since last quarter and stood at 5.9 per cent in June 2017. Food inflation hit 7.3 per cent during the reporting quarter - largely adducible to the shortfall in supply fuelled by the floods - which was around 8.0 per cent higher than the previous quarter. Non-food inflation is reported to have increased by 11 per cent during this period compared to the previous quarter.
REMITTANCES: The month-on-month remittance inflow (in USD) started to increase in the previous quarter (January-March 2017) and reached USD 1.27 billion in May 2017, the highest inflow in the last 11 months. In June 2017 USD 1.21 billion remittance flew in though it was 21 per cent less year-on-year. Non-resident Bangladeshis tend to send more money home ahead of Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr festivals. The rising exchange rate might also have contributed to the jump in remittance. However, remittance inflow in the just concluded FY 2016-17 was USD 1.06 billion which has been the lowest in six years despite a 35 per cent increase in migrant outflow during the period.
FOOD PRODUCTION, IMPORT AND STOCK: The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) has fixed the target for food grain production at 36.59 million MT for the FY 2016-17 of which 35.16 million MT is for rice and 1.43 million MT for wheat. Total food grain stock was 0.56 million MT in April 2017 which was 46 per cent lower than in the same period a year ago (1.04 million MT). The trend further reduced to 0.55 and 0.38 million MT in May and June 2017 respectively which is the lowest in the recent history. Total food grain import in the just concluded FY 2016-17 was 5.82 million MT of which rice and wheat were 0.13 and 5.69 million MT respectively.
PUBLIC FOOD PROCUREMENT AND DISTRIBUTION: Tk1.38 million MT against the target of 2.05 million MT. Actual procurement of rice and wheat were 1.28 and 0.10 million MT respectively. Total food grain distribution for the just concluded FY 2016/17 was 2.24 million MT of which rice and wheat were 1.61 and 0.63 million MT respectively, against the revised target of a total of 2.36 million MT of food grain. Actual distribution was about 5.0 per cent less than the target for the year, mainly constituted by less rice distribution.
WAGE RATE AND PURCHASING CAPACITY: In June 2017, the average wage for a female labourer was Tk 269 per day whereas for a male labourer it was Tk 358 per day - a difference of 33 per cent or Tk 89 per day. In other words, females fetched 75 per cent of males' wage. It needs to be mentioned here that in rural Bangladesh, after the Aman harvesting period ends, there are far less work opportunities for female agricultural labourers than for their male counterparts. Agricultural activities such as Boro transplanting are predominantly performed by male labourers. And thus the wage gap is also highest during Boro season.
Trend analysis of the agricultural wage data of male and female
labourers in the past three fiscal years (FYs) shows that on average, female labourers receive a wage that is 24 per cent less than that of their male counterparts, resulting in a purchasing capacity difference of about 2.5 kg of rice per day. This has significant implications on the food security status of households dependent largely on the wage labour income of female members. The wage gap is higher in the southern divisions of Khulna and Barisal. The average male-female wage gap during the reporting quarter was highest at Tk 110 per day in Khulna division, and lowest at Tk 76 per day in Sylhet division.
"Wage data collected from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) showed that the average Terms of Trade (ToT) in the reporting quarter went up in April 2017 due to an increase in agricultural wages as compared to the previous month. It, however, started decreasing from May during the reporting quarter, and hit 8.5 kg per day in June 2017 at the start of the agricultural lean period. The average ToT during this month was also about 32 per cent lower than in the same period last year. As mentioned earlier, considerably higher rice prices and lower public stock during the reporting quarter contributed to the low ToT in this period -- for both male and female agricultural day labourers."
The writer is a former Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University.