A saga of wastage and despair

The news appeared in newspapers rather quietly - and it did not attract much public attention either. May be, it was not an exciting issue or it did not represent a loud emergency. But in the absolute analysis, it reflects an impending danger. In Bangladesh, about nine lakh young people with university degrees are jobless. Furthermore, during the past 12 years, the number of unemployed university graduates in Bangladesh has inflated by more than four times - from two lakhs in 2013 to nine lakhs now. As the total number of unemployed people in the country is about 27 lakhs, one in every three unemployed people is a university graduate. Naturally, all these numbers raise some questions. For example, if the university education cannot guarantee jobs for young people, does it mean that higher education has lost its relevance? Does a big pool of jobless youths with the highest degree represent a wastage of resources and opportunities? Or, under such circumstances, how would Bangladesh compete in the world of the 21st century?

In order to answer these questions, let us look more deeply inro all those numbers though a disaggregated lens. First, in Bangladesh, the number of male university graduates without jobs is six lakhs, and the corresponding figure for females is three lakhs. There may be two reasons for this scenario. One, even with university certificates, women may enter the labour markets in lesser numbers. The fact that they are smaller in the numbers of unemployed graduates, may reflect that lesser female entry into the job market. Or, fewer women are really without work. Second, among different categories educational attainment, the rate of unemployment is the highest among the university graduates. For example, while the unemployment rate among those with secondary education is only three per cent, the comparable figure for university graduates at 14 per cent is more than four times than the first number. Third, in Bangladesh, 86 lakhs young people are not in employment, education or training (NEET) - of which 28 lakhs are men and 58 lakhs are women.

With these perspectives, let us analyse the questions raised earlier. If we set aside the refined objectives of university education for a moment, and instead assume that the primary objective of getting a university degree is to land on a good job, it is obvious that for nine lakhs university graduates of Bangladesh, that objective remains unfulfilled. On the other hand, the youths without any formal education or those with only primary or secondary education, are doing better in terms of getting jobs.  Sometimes, this phenomenon is referred to as a paradox, sometimes, it induces people to raise question about the relevance of higher education. In order to answer this question, it is important to recognise that in labour markets, where people with no education or with only primary or secondary education operate, the skill-demands are generalised, without requiring high-level specialised skills.  Thus, even if people have no formal education, or have only primary or secondary education, they can get jobs in those markets.  

On the other hand, the job markets for university graduate are rather specialised, requiring specific high-level skills. But the problem is that university graduates often do not possess the knowledge and skills, which are in demand in those markets. Employers in the industrial sector of Bangladesh often complain that the higher education sector of the county has been unable to produce graduates with the knowledge and skills that they require in that sector. Therefore, the opportunities for employing highly educated youths become constrained.

The employability of Bangladeshi university graduates critically hinges on the discipline which they have pursued at the university level. For example, while the jobless rate among Political Science university graduates has been found to be 23 per cent, the comparable rate among the English graduates is only 0.17 per cent.  It must be kept in mind that the world of work, the nature of work and the modus operandi of work have been changing quite fast. One driving force for such changes is of course digital revolution, but the other is the structural changes in the global manufacturing and the services sectors. As a result, newer demands have been created for diverse professional knowledge and skills. Our higher educational structures and university systems have been lagging behind the demand for those newer knowledge and skills. Therefore, the numbers of jobless university graduates have been swelling and concerns have been duly raised on the relevance of higher education for changing job markets.

The delinking between higher education and employment has other dimensions too. The higher education system of Bangladesh in 2022 has produced sevens lakh university graduates. But every year, the Bangladesh economy can absorb about three lakhs university graduates. When supply is more than twice than that of demand, unemployment is sure to occur. One of the major reasons for such a huge supply of university graduates is the vast expansion of universities in Bangladesh over the years.  Today, there are 56 public universities in Bangladesh - up from 53 from 2022. During the past 3 years.15 new private universities have been established and the new number of private universities now stands at 116. It goes without saying that a large part of these universities provides certificates, but do not produce the desired skills.

The incidence of high unemployment among the university graduates has a macroeconomic dimension as well, which is the phenomenon of jobless growth. Over the past years, the Bangladesh economy has grown, but it has not produced sufficient jobs in the economy.  The government was exclusively focussed on economic growth, but not on job creation. In recent times, private investments have declined in the country and foreign direct investments into the economy have been showing downward trends. The opportunities for job creation in the economy have thus shrunk. The sectoral growths in the Bangladesh economy are delinked with the sectors' job creation. For example, the agricultural sector contributes only 11 per cent to the country's gross domestic product (GDP), but accounts for 45 per cent of the economy's employment. On the other hand, the manufacturing sector contributes 37 per cent of the country's GDP, but accounts for only 17 per cent of its employment.

There is another reason for high unemployment among the university graduates of Bangladesh.  People with no education or with just primary or secondary education are not that choosy when it comes to jobs. They take whatever jobs are available. On the other hand, while deciding of jobs, university graduates consider a lot of things, including the issue of social prestige. They are quite picky and, therefore, do not consider all the jobs available to them. Their choice patterns are also quite complex. Thus, their job decisions are not that flexible.

Under this broader background, two dimensions are important. Joblessness after finishing the university can create despair among the youth. That frustration becomes deeper, as the length of unemployment stretches. At a personal level, such despair has financial and emotional dimensions, but at collective level, it has social and political implications. Despair among the youth is not only negative, but it is not desirable also.

Secondly, if nine lakhs young people are unemployed in a country, and 86 lakhs youths are in NEET, such a scenario represents a huge wastage of human and financial resources. It also implies a wastage of opportunities too. But the youth in any country represents a driving force for economic dynamism and social changes. If the energy of the youth, their risk-taking capabilities, their creativity and innovation, courage and morale, their ability to think out of the box are not properly utilised, that will result a huge drain on a precious wealth.

The world has been is changing fast. In that context, our young people will have to compete in a dynamic world. So, Bangladesh will have to prepare itself quickly through reversing the waste of the youth energy, enhancing their capabilities and creating opportunities for them. The clock is in fact ticking.

Dr Selim Jahan is Former Director, Human Development Report Office and Poverty Division, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York, USA. jahan.selim@gmail.com