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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has virtually upended international order, creating a black hole of suspicions among nations and blocs at large. The global order evolving since the end of the Cold War seems to be in tatters. Thus, the invasion of Ukraine has created an unprecedented global crisis, which cannot be fathomed even by seasoned analysts.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization or Nato, led by the United States, simply failed to do what was needed to rescue Ukraine from the clutches of Russia. And Russia, too, says in unambiguous terms that post-1991 illusions about 'friendly West are over'.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, disillusioned about the sincerity of the West led by the United States, now says that his country has lost interest in joining the Nato, though this is the very aspiration which happens to be the immediate flashpoint that erupted on February 24 and shook the world with its knock-on effects to this day.
After the World War II, the world became used to living with a bipolar order, one led by the capitalist United States and the other by the socialist Soviet Union or the USSR--the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Since Russia abandoned socialism it's also a capitalist country with no democratic pretension.
Factious geopolitics, unprecedented opportunism and sheer military rivalry for expanding or retaining spheres of influence created the latest global crisis. How else one would explain the now-forgotten desire of the US to expand Nato up to the Russian border or the Russian invasion of Ukraine to keep the US-led Nato and the European Union at bay?
The future remains unpredictable--and cloaked in uncertainties as to the endgame. But, for sure, Ukraine has already been a casualty of invasion by its powerful neighbour.
The US-led military alliance, having spurred the defiant Ukrainian posture in the face of Russia's forbidding as regards the matter of high security implications, has simply betrayed Ukraine. But the story was different in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq--all located far from the North Atlantic realm. There the US and its allies used Nato to destroy cradles of civilisations, all in the name of democracy and freedom.
The US did the same in Libya by using Nato, though Libya is not in the North Atlantic either, to make it a failed state and a continuous source of refugees.
Mighty Russia invaded Crimea, Georgia and now Ukraine--the only difference is that the Russia led by Vladimir Putin has no democratic pretensions.
China with its characteristic pragmatism is watching the developments and its economic power allows it to quietly wait to pursue its long-term goals.
American response to the Russian invasions has, until now, been nothing more than sanctions that are hurting not only Russia but also the West led by the US, particularly Europe, with many of its countries being dependent on Russian oil, gas, industrial raw materials as well as wheat.
China, Turkey and India refused to toe the US line against Russia, in a significant development on the geopolitical landscape of the day. Powerful countries are suspicious about the weaker countries not toeing their lines anymore.
Nato's inaction seems to have emboldened Russia to make its smaller neighbours in East Europe insecure. The Soviet Union never paid a price for its brutal suppression of the Hungarian revolution in 1956 or invading Czechoslovakia in 1968. Similarly, Russia paid no price for attacking Georgia in 2008, invading Crimea in 2014, when it was a part of Ukraine, or backing separatists in Ukraine's Donbas region.
But, to the utter surprise of Russia, even the Russian-speaking people in Ukraine took up arms against Russia after it invaded Ukraine on February 24.
The number of people fleeing Ukraine since the Russian invasion continues to swell. Hundreds of Ukrainians were reported killed by Russian troops who also allegedly committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in the occupied territories for which there is a growing demand on the Hague- based International Criminal Court (ICC) to try Russian president Vladimir Putin on war- crimes charges.
Former prime minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk described Vladimir Putin as a war criminal and demanded the Russian president's trial by the ICC. The ICC, on its part, warned the warring parties that it has jurisdiction over Ukraine, which accepted the ICC's mandate in 2015.
Russia quit the ICC in 2016, after the court published a report containing a damning verdict against Russia for its invasion of Crimea in 2014. Russia did not attend a hearing against it held at the ICC on Ukraine's request.
The 'empty Russian seats speak loudly', said Ukrainian officials attending the hearing at the Hague. Ukraine filed the case after Russia had invaded the neighbour--one of the breakaway states of the defunct Soviet Union.
A prolonged war in Ukraine would multiply the sufferings of the Ukrainians and the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
The invasion also has serious implications for the global economy in general and the European economy in particular due to energy scarcity and disruptions to the traditional supply chains.