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For the third consecutive year, the country's economic growth rate has declined, reflecting the sluggish trend in the overall development scenario. The national statistical agency released the primary estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current fiscal year (FY25) last week. It showed that the GDP growth rate declined to 3.97 per cent in FY25 from 4.22 per cent in FY24. Earlier in FY23, the growth rate was 5.78 per cent, significantly lower than 7.10 per cent in FY22.
The latest decline in the growth rate is predictable and also realistic. Unlike the previous years when the now-ousted Hasina regime used to manipulate data to show inflated figures of economic growth, no such thing happened this time. The national statistical agency collects, calculates and releases the data of national accounts independently and professionally.
The provisional estimate of GDP growth of around 4 per cent is close to projections made by three international financial institutions. The World Bank projected that Bangladesh's economy would grow by 3.30 per cent in the current fiscal year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a figure of 3.76 per cent, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) mentioned 3.90 per cent. The Bangladesh Bank, the country's central bank, projected that the economic growth rate may hover at the 4.0 to 5.0 per cent range in FY25. Bangladesh Bank, in its half-yearly Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), released in January last, also cautioned that the growth outlook did not appear optimistic due to various challenges.
The latest estimate also showed that the agriculture growth rate declined sharply to 1.79 per cent in the current fiscal year from 3.30 per cent in the past fiscal year. The poor performance of farm activities had a significant impact on overall economic output. The services sector also experienced sluggish growth in the current fiscal year, recording a modest growth of 5.09 per cent from 5.37 per cent in FY24. The industrial sector, however, posted a modest rise in growth to 4.34 per cent in FY25 from 3.51 per cent last year.
One needs to keep in mind that the current fiscal year began amid heavy turbulence due to a student-led mass uprising against the oppressive rule of Sheikh Hasina. To supress the mass movement, the autocratic regime resorted to brutal killings, and at least 1,400 people sacrificed their lives. More than 20,000 people were injured, and many were intimidated by the brutal force of the Hasina regime. Nevertheless, the mass uprising finally compelled her to step down and flee on August 5 to take shelter in India. On August 8, an interim government took charge led by Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus. It took a couple of months to restore law and order and bring business back to normal, although economic activities, severely disrupted during July and August, have been struggling to recover fully.
The interim government has, however, initiated several reform measures to fix the various loopholes in the country's macroeconomic management. During the Hasina regime, poor governance led to an increase in bad loans, making the financial sector vulnerable and fuelling capital flight from the country. Data manipulation was also widespread to conceal the weaknesses of macroeconomic mismanagement, such as the sharp depletion of foreign exchange reserves. Fixing the problems within a short period is difficult, and the interim government has faced a daunting challenge in doing so.
Against this backdrop of sluggish economic growth and fractured economic management, finance adviser Dr Salehuddin Ahmed will present the national budget for the next fiscal year (FY26) tomorrow. It will be a televised placement as there is no parliament in the country. The finance adviser is likely to keep the budget outlay at Tk 7.0 trillion, which is 12 per cent less than the original outlay of the FY25 budget, which was Tk 7.97 trillion.
The core challenge for the finance adviser is to focus on containing inflationary pressure, creating environment for investment, and providing rooms for job creation. As the interim government is not obsessed with growth, it gives him some necessary space to manoeuvre the fiscal measures. The indication is already there that the adviser has decided to reduce duties and value-added taxes (VAT) on a good number of products and services. The minimum threshold of tax-free income will also be increased to adjust the real income with high inflation. With the continuation of the tight monetary stance to contain inflation, well-coordinated fiscal measures will ease the pressure of inflation in the near future.
The budget is faced with a pressing challenge-the urgent need to create sufficient jobs for the millions of people in the country. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), Bangladesh has a labour force of 71 million, with a labour participation rate of 49.5 per cent. The youth unemployment rate is a staggering 16.8 per cent, and the share of youth not in employment, education or training is a concerning 30.9 per cent. The ILO's recent caution that youth unemployment in Bangladesh is expected to remain high further underscores the urgency of the situation. The finance adviser's plan for job creation, to be revealed tomorrow after the budget is presented, is eagerly awaited.
To create necessary jobs for millions of youths, the country needs more investment in the manufacturing and services sectors. The provisional estimate of BBS showed that the investment-GDP ratio declined to 29.38 per cent in the current fiscal year from 30.70 per cent last year. The alarming thing is that the ratio of private investment declined sharply to 22.48 per cent from 23.96 per cent during the period under review. This decline in private investment has a direct impact on job creation, as it hampers the growth of businesses and the expansion of job opportunities. The decline in investment is a reflection of lower business confidence, and the trend has been persisting for the last couple of years. The net inflow of annual foreign direct investment (FDI) also declined by 13 per cent last year, marking the third consecutive year of a decline in foreign investment. Therefore, the next budget needs to outline some visible measures to attract investment.
It's important to remember that budgetary measures alone are not enough to attract investment. A stable socio-political environment is equally crucial. Investors, particularly foreign investors, seek stability to ensure the sustainability of their investments in the medium and long term. While the interim government's efforts to improve the investment climate are commendable, the current situation has yet to provide a positive signal for long-term investment. If the dust takes longer to settle, the rise in investment will inevitably be delayed.