Challenges in advancing China-Bangladesh ties

As Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus prepares to visit China from March 26 to 28 to attend the Boao Forum in Hainan, the diplomatic community is closely watching the developments. This visit comes at a critical juncture for Bangladesh, particularly in the light of its strained relations with India following the fall of the previous regime. Once hailed as a model of neighborhood diplomacy, the Indo-Bangladesh relationship has faced significant challenges, prompting Dhaka to recalibrate its foreign policy priorities. Against this backdrop, Dr. Yunus's visit to China is seen as a strategic move to strengthen bilateral ties, which are increasingly centered on trade, development, and geopolitics. However, while the potential for deepening cooperation is significant, several challenges must be addressed to ensure a balanced and mutually beneficial partnership.

China is Bangladesh's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $20 billion annually. However, the trade relationship is heavily skewed in China's favor, with Bangladesh importing far more than it exports. This imbalance has raised concerns among Bangladeshi policymakers, who fear that signing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China by 2026, as Beijing desires, could further undermine the local manufacturing sector. The government has been cautious about committing to the FTA, wary of the potential influx of Chinese goods that could stifle domestic industries.

To address the trade gap, China has promised to start importing more Bangladeshi products, including mangoes and other agricultural goods. While this is a positive step, it remains to be seen whether such measures will be sufficient to bridge the trade deficit. Bangladesh must also diversify its export basket and improve product quality to compete in the Chinese market. The FTA negotiations will require careful handling to ensure that Bangladesh's economic interests are protected while fostering a more balanced trade relationship.

China has played a pivotal role in financing and implementing mega infrastructure projects in Bangladesh, including roads, bridges, and power plants. These projects have been instrumental in addressing Bangladesh's infrastructure deficit and supporting its economic growth. However, allegations of inflated project costs during the previous regime have cast a shadow over this cooperation. Critics argue that some projects were overpriced to benefit the ruling elite in Bangladesh, raising questions about transparency and accountability.

Moreover, delays in project implementation have been a persistent issue, with both Chinese and Bangladeshi bureaucracies contributing to the slow progress. While China has agreed in principle to relax loan repayment terms and extend grace periods, bureaucratic inefficiencies on both sides continue to hinder timely project completion. Addressing these challenges will require greater coordination, transparency, and accountability to ensure that development projects deliver their intended benefits without unnecessary delays or controversies.

Bangladesh's growing ties with China are being closely monitored by India, a traditional regional rival of China, as well as by the United States and its allies. As the Indo-Pacific region becomes a focal point of global geopolitics, Bangladesh finds itself navigating a complex web of alliances and rivalries. India, in particular, views Bangladesh's deepening engagement with China with suspicion, given its own strained relations with Beijing. This dynamic complicates Dhaka's efforts to maintain a balanced foreign policy that accommodates both its neighbors and global powers.

The interim government's reluctance to join China's Global Development Initiative (GDI) and Global Security Initiative (GSI) underscores the delicate nature of this balancing act. While these initiatives align with China's broader strategic goals, Bangladesh has opted to defer its participation until an elected government assumes power. This cautious approach reflects Dhaka's desire to avoid alienating India and the West while exploring opportunities for cooperation with China.

China has emerged as Bangladesh's largest supplier of defense equipment, accounting for a significant share of its military imports. Beijing's offer to further strengthen military ties presents both opportunities and challenges for Dhaka. On the one hand, closer defense cooperation could enhance Bangladesh's military capabilities and contribute to regional stability. On the other hand, it risks provoking concerns among India and other members of the anti-China bloc, potentially complicating Bangladesh's diplomatic relations.

The interim government must tread carefully in this area, ensuring that its defense engagements with China do not undermine its broader foreign policy objectives. Transparency and clear communication with regional partners will be essential to mitigate any potential fallout from closer military ties with Beijing.

The Rohingya crisis remains one of the most pressing challenges for Bangladesh, with over a million refugees living in overcrowded camps in Cox's Bazar. China, as a key ally of Myanmar, wields significant influence over the situation and is seen as a potential mediator in resolving the crisis. Beijing's support will be crucial in facilitating the repatriation of Rohingya refugees and addressing the root causes of the conflict in Myanmar's Rakhine State.

The visit of Dr. Yunus to China provides an opportunity to discuss this issue and seek Beijing's assistance in finding a sustainable solution.

Recently, China has announced to dedicate major hospitals in Kunming for Bangladeshi patients. The development took place on the heel of visa curb on Bangladeshis by India as it has deprived hundreds of Bangladeshi patients in having treatment in Indian hospitals. China has also pledged to build state of the art hospitals in Bangladesh. All these are seen as a very positive gesture from the China side. The first batch of the Bangladeshi patients landed in Kunming on March 10.

If all goes well, this can be a golden opportunity for Bangladeshi patients but there is a need to address the cost issue. In case it proves too expensive compared to treatment India, the scheme would fail to reap any dividend.

The Teesta River Comprehensive Management Project is another key focus of the chief adviser's visit. The previous government's decision to exclude China from the project after lengthy negotiations sparked controversy and raised questions about the transparency of the decision-making process. With pressure mounting from communities in the Teesta River basin for a concrete resolution, the interim government must carefully navigate this sensitive issue.

Re-engaging China in the Teesta project could provide technical and financial support, but it also risks complicating relations with India, which has its own interests in the river's water-sharing arrangements. Balancing these competing interests will require skillful diplomacy and a clear-eyed assessment of Bangladesh's long-term priorities.

As Bangladesh and China prepare to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations, the challenges and opportunities in their partnership are more apparent than ever. Chief Adviser Dr. Yunus's visit to China underscores the importance of the bilateral   relationship in shaping Bangladesh's economic and geopolitical future. However, advancing bilateral ties will require addressing trade imbalances, ensuring transparency in development projects, and navigating the complexities of regional and global geopolitics.

Bangladesh's diplomats must approach these challenges with a clear strategy, balancing the need for economic cooperation with the imperative of safeguarding national interests. By fostering a relationship based on mutual respect and shared benefits, Bangladesh and China can build a partnership that not only strengthens their bilateral ties but also contributes to regional stability and prosperity. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but with careful navigation, the potential for a stronger and more resilient partnership is within reach.

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