Danger that people's persistent income loss poses

The middle-to-low-income earners, who mostly belong to the fixed income groups in society, are gradually failing to hold on to the socio-economic categories, such as the middle-income groups, they have traditionally been bracketed into.  Such developments have occasionally been the stuff of the socio-economic studies. These social researches and studies and reports on them have, of late, been making news with boring repetitions. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), point-to-point inflation in Bangladesh inched up to 8.36 per cent last month (September) from 8.29 per cent in August.    Food inflation, on the other hand, was recorded at 7.64 per cent in September, up from 7.60 per cent in August. Non-food inflation stood at 8.96 per cent in September, marking a slight increase from 8.90 per cent in August. Now, what impact have these relentless increases in the rates of inflation on the incomes of the fixed-income people, particularly in the so-called, middle-income and low-income categories of population, left? 

Whatever raises they had in their wages/salaries at least on paper meanwhile have been  eaten up by food inflation and increases in a hundred and one  expenditures in their day-to-day lives.  The latest BBS data further show that wages grew by 8.02 per cent in September down from 8.15 per cent in August and 8.19 per cent in July.  So, it is a case of double whammy the fixed income groups have been hit by in the months being discussed.   Reports further have it that as of last September, it has been for the 44th month that inflation has outpaced the wage growth as experienced by the socio-economic categories of population under consideration. This report only confirms historical records of what these segments of the population have already been going through. But those apparently boring and uninteresting news reports on the falling income levels of the people who are also society's conscious section as they belong to the larger educated class and hence opinion-makers in society are obviously a social force to be reckoned with. History has ample evidences of how disgruntled middle classes led revolutionary upsurges in countries across the world both in the past and in recent times. Our own July uprising of 2024 and the youth revolt in the neighbouring Nepal are instances of what urban and educated youths who by default belong to the social middle class are capable of. Our university and college students who called their movement against autocracy as one against discriminations belong to the middle class families that were deeply affected by income disparity in society. Once the middle-income people take to the streets with their grievances, other groups of society including the low-income groups and the working class join in. Though members of the working class often take out militant protest demonstration to press home their various economic demands, they cannot engage the rest of society in their struggles. But when the middle-income group or the middle class joins the movement, it often takes the shape of social upheavals, even revolutions. This is the reason why social research and study groups are especially concerned about the changes in the income levels of middle-income as well as those of the low-income categories of population.  An important point to note here is the characteristics of the middle class in the post-colonial  societies which, as in our own case, are  also economically and culturally rooted in their feudal past. But the middle class of the industrial societies are basically the managerial and professional classes with high discretionary incomes and culturally driven by individualism.    

But the middle class of post-colonial societies as in South Asia is still held together by strong familial bonds, which is not the case with the middle class people of the industrial societies of the West.  So, the middle-income groups of the post-colonial, least developed as well as developing societies in Asia and Africa are economically more vulnerable than their counterparts in the highly industrialised societies, especially in the West. 

In that case, the government should be especially attentive to the economic woes of the middle and low-income people, if only to ward off a social upheaval similar to or more disruptive than the one the nation experienced in July 2024. To be frank, the present situation of the socio-economic classes under scrutiny in Bangladesh can be likened to a time device dangerously ticking away to detonate at an unspecified point of time.

But how is the government currently in office, or the political party waiting in the wings to form government following the next general elections prepared to meet the stress that is fast building up in society? To all appearances, they are not. The July upsurge seems to be quite lost on them as they are still engaged in the traditional culture of demonstrating their political muscle through mobilsation of party goons and rent-seeking. But had they learnt anything from the ouster of the previous dictatorial  regime through student-led mass uprising, they would be alert to the evolving socio-economic issues and to how a large segment of the population previously belonging to the middle class are fast getting pauperized!

It appears, the traditional ruling classes live in a state of timelessness where life does not change. So, once voted into office, everything would be fine, they believe. 

But  given the developments in the socio-economic landscape on the economic front, it may not prove to be an easy ride for any elected government of the future. The persistently falling curve of income of the fixed income people since 2022 with no sign of letup in the near future is an ill omen they need to take serious note of. So, they would do well to include  in their election manifesto a guideline on how they are going to tackle the issue after getting elected. But so far, except for a lot of familiar and high-sounding, though empty, rhetoric, nothing of substance could be heard from their side.

This is anything but reassuring, especially when going by the BBS Wage Rate Index, across 63 occupations including industry, agriculture and services, wage growth in all eight administrative divisions of the government have demonstrated a negative growth as of last month (September). Notably, the worst performer of all was the southwestern division of Khulna. That is nothing surprising since the overarching impact of unrestrained rise in inflation has hit the wage earners of this traditionally  neglected part of the country the hardest. 

But are politicians hailing from this region aware of these challenges facing them and ready to address those if they are elected in the next polls?

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