Restoring trust in BBS data

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has long been facing a crisis of credibility regarding the accuracy and reliability of its data. For various reasons, the public cannot help but take the state-owned agency's data with a grain of salt. The latest blow to the BBS's credibility came when a secretary of the Election Commission (EC) publicly challenged the figure of the country's total population, which, according to the BBS 2022 census, stands at 169.8 million. The EC secretary, however, claimed the actual population of the country is 190 million, asserting that the Commission has relevant data, as it prepared the voter list by visiting every household.

Scepticism, however, extends far beyond the population count. Many observers believe that BBS data concerning the demand and production of various farm products, employment rates, economic growth figures, the rate of inflation and even progress in poverty alleviation have either been exaggerated or far removed from reality. For example, while the BBS data shows a national unemployment rate of around 4.2 per cent, the youth unemployment rate is estimated by independent researchers to be well over 10-12 per cent. Thus, the users find a significant portion of BBS data to be unreliable.

There are two major shortcomings plaguing the statistical department: a shortage of skilled personnel and the politicisation of data, as successive governments often seek to project an overly rosy picture of the economy while concealing unpalatable facts. To its credit, the interim government has reportedly been allowing the BBS to operate with relatively greater independence in presenting unblemished data. However, this must not be a one-off occurrence. What will happen when an elected political government returns to power and resumes meddling with data at will?

Under the current process - where the BBS requires approval from the Prime Minister's Office, the Planning Minister, or other authorities before releasing data - its autonomy is seriously compromised. Hence, there is a growing call for structural reform of the BBS, granting it absolute autonomy to publish unvarnished facts.  Transforming the BBS into a fully independent commission, endowed with executive powers and adequate resources, is therefore essential to strengthening its capacity to produce unbiased, accurate and credible statistics. In an era when policy decisions must be data-driven and evidence-based, ensuring the integrity of data is of paramount importance.

In this regard, a government-formed task force put forward numerous important recommendations. Chief among them is the recommendation to transform BBS into an independent statutory body to reduce bureaucratic control by the Statistical and Informatics Division (SID). Currently, the BBS functions merely as a department under the Ministry of Planning, with bureaucrats often appointed to head the body. This structural arrangement inherently creates a conflict of interest, as no statistical agency can maintain the required objectivity if it operates under the direct shadow of political influence and departmental pressure. The task force, therefore, proposed that the SID's role be limited to providing secretarial services only, alongside minimal administrative oversight and policy coordination, granting the statistical body the autonomy that essential for maintaining integrity.

The taskforce, led by Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman, has also proposed renaming the BBS as "Statistics Bangladesh (StatBD)." Although the proposed name may not sound pleasing or may seem unnecessary, the recommendation to establish a well-designed apex governing mechanism to enhance organisational accountability and elevate the BBS's institutional status is both timely and relevant. The taskforce further suggested creating new positions, including that of a Chief Statistician (CS) with full independence to publish data without government interference. The CS would be a special-grade officer appointed from the open market and supported by an Additional CS (Grade-1) and five Joint CSs (Grade-2) to manage the National Statistical Organisation (NSO).

While the Statistical Act 2013 provides a legal mandate, the task force reported that institutional independence and professional autonomy are hampered by limited control over personnel decisions, dependence on non-professional approval structures, uncertain funding, and an unclear distribution of responsibilities between SID and BBS. To address these issues, the taskforce proposed forming a Trust and Transparency Commission of Statistics (TTCS), with the chief statistician accountable for all NSO activities. To achieve this, the act must be amended to grant BBS full independence in data collection, processing and publication.

Furthermore, the taskforce emphasised that inadequate budgeting severely undermines the BBS's credibility. To address this, it recommended that 12 key surveys - including the Population Census and the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) - be financed through the revenue budget. This would ensure financial independence and enable the BBS to avoid donor dependency. The report also called for the establishment of a legally mandated publication calendar for major indicators, ensuring equal and timely access for all stakeholders while minimising the risk of politically motivated data manipulation.  What the taskforce could also have included in its reform proposal is a provision allowing the BBS to report directly to Parliament rather than to any particular ministry. Implementing such major reforms will significantly enhance data accuracy, transparency and reliability.

Statistical data are not mere numbers; they serve as a mirror of a nation's socio-economic progress and challenges. Inaccurate or biased data not only misinform citizens but also mislead policymakers. As the country prepares for graduation from the United Nations' Least Developed Country (LDC) category, the quality of the next course of decision-making will largely depend on the accuracy and timeliness of the available data. An independent BBS is, therefore, not just a bureaucratic necessity but a democratic and economic imperative.

aktuhin.fexpress@gmail.com