South Asia can't afford another war

The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan has always been more than a line on a map. It is a frontier where geopolitics, history, and mistrust converge - often violently. Today, as tensions flare once again along the Durand Line, the prospect of another conflict in this fragile region casts a long and troubling shadow. For South Asia - a region already burdened with poverty, political instability, and developmental setbacks - a new clash between Islamabad and Kabul would be nothing short of catastrophic.

The immediate triggers of the current strain are well known: cross-border militancy, allegations of harbouring insurgents, and retaliatory military strikes. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan's Taliban government of allowing the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate freely from Afghan soil. Kabul, in turn, claims Pakistan continues to shell civilian areas in the name of counterterrorism. Yet beneath these accusations lies a deeper and more persistent mistrust - one that dates back to the very birth of the two nations.

Afghanistan was the only country to vote against Pakistan's admission to the United Nations in 1947, rejecting the Durand Line as an artificial colonial creation that divided the Pashtun tribes. Decades later, the ghosts of that refusal still haunt bilateral ties. The rise and fall of the Taliban - twice now - has done little to bring stability or mutual confidence. Instead, it has turned the borderlands into an ungoverned wilderness where both states accuse each other of exporting insecurity.

But while these grievances may feel timeless, the stakes today are far greater. South Asia cannot afford another war - even a limited one. It is a region of immense potential but persistent fragility. More than one-third of its 1.8 billion people live in poverty. Food insecurity, climate change, and youth unemployment threaten to erode social cohesion. For countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka - each grappling with economic distress - even the tremor of regional instability could trigger political and financial aftershocks.

Pakistan itself stands at a precarious crossroads. The country's economy is struggling to stay afloat under an IMF programme, its rupee continues to slide, and inflation remains punishingly high. Any prolonged military confrontation - even a low-intensity border conflict - would derail its fragile recovery, diverting scarce resources from development to defence.

Afghanistan, meanwhile, remains in dire straits. Since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, the country has been cut off from the global financial system. Sanctions, aid suspensions, and isolation have driven millions into poverty. The United Nations estimates that more than 23 million Afghans - over half the population - face acute food insecurity. In such circumstances, sabre-rattling with a powerful neighbour is not a show of strength but an invitation to catastrophe.

The tension also poses serious implications for the wider South Asian region. The fragile peace in the subcontinent relies on a delicate balance: India and Pakistan maintaining their uneasy détente, China's influence being cautiously managed, and Afghanistan not becoming a safe haven for transnational militancy. Should Pakistan and Afghanistan descend into open hostility, all these balances could collapse.

Militant groups that thrive in chaos would find renewed purpose. Refugee flows could destabilise neighbouring Iran and even reach as far as Central Asia. Bordering nations like Iran, China, and India would be forced to recalibrate their security postures, while trade routes through Pakistan and Afghanistan - once touted as potential corridors for regional integration - would instead become frontlines of confrontation.

What South Asia desperately needs today is not another war but a Marshall Plan for peace and prosperity. Nearly every country in the region is battling an economic crisis of one form or another. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh are all under IMF programmes. Nepal's remittance-dependent economy is stagnating. Even India, the fastest-growing major economy, faces rising unemployment and deep rural distress.

The South Asian region, by World Bank estimates, could add nearly 2 per cent to its collective GDP through enhanced intra-regional trade. Yet it remains one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. Political mistrust, protectionism, and unresolved disputes have kept borders closed and economies isolated.

Conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan would push that goal even further out of reach. The Pakistan-Afghanistan border, for all its insecurity, is a vital commercial artery. From fruit traders in Kandahar to truckers in Peshawar, thousands depend on cross-border movement for survival. A closure or militarisation of that frontier would devastate local economies and further impoverish already marginalised communities.

Moreover, the impact would ripple beyond the immediate neighbourhood. The vision of connecting South Asia with Central Asia through trade corridors - the very logic behind initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) - hinges on a stable Afghanistan. If Kabul and Islamabad turn hostile, those investments will wither, and regional connectivity will remain a dream deferred.

South Asia's history offers sobering lessons. The wars of 1948, 1965, and 1971 left enduring scars on Pakistan and India - not only in blood but in squandered opportunity. Decades of hostility diverted billions from education and health to defence budgets. Afghanistan's four decades of conflict, meanwhile, have turned a once-thriving crossroads of civilisation into a humanitarian tragedy.

And yet, the world has changed. In the 21st century, power no longer flows merely from tanks and borders but from innovation, trade, and human capital. East Asia's transformation from a battlefield to an economic powerhouse should serve as a lesson for South Asia. Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea overcame bitter wars to become hubs of prosperity. Why must South Asia remain trapped in its own vicious cycle of insecurity?

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan must recognise that their destinies are intertwined - not by choice, but by geography and history. They share ethnic ties, linguistic roots, and centuries of cultural exchange. Their people suffer from the same scourges: poverty, illiteracy, and political neglect. Instead of weaponising their shared pain, they could transform it into shared progress.

This will require courage - particularly from the leadership in Islamabad and Kabul. Pakistan must refrain from treating Afghanistan solely through a security prism. Its obsession with "strategic depth" has only deepened resentment. Instead, Islamabad should engage Kabul through economic cooperation, infrastructure investment, and humanitarian support.

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers, for their part, must prove that they can act as a responsible state, not a revolutionary movement. Their reluctance to rein in the TTP undermines not just Pakistan's security but their own credibility as a government capable of maintaining order. The Taliban's pursuit of "Islamic brotherhood" must extend beyond rhetoric to tangible measures of trust-building - joint patrols, intelligence sharing, and economic integration.

Regional stakeholders - notably China, Iran, and India - have a crucial role to play in defusing tensions. China, with its economic leverage over both Pakistan and Afghanistan, can push for restraint and dialogue. Iran, which shares borders and refugee burdens with Afghanistan, has every incentive to prevent further instability. India, while wary of the Taliban, should view peace in Afghanistan not as a zero-sum loss to Pakistan but as a regional public good.

The international community, too, must abandon its piecemeal engagement with Afghanistan. Isolating Kabul only strengthens hardliners and weakens moderates. Humanitarian aid and limited financial access should continue - not as endorsements of the Taliban, but as lifelines for the Afghan people. A starving population is fertile ground for extremism; feeding them is an investment in peace.

The world cannot afford another war in South Asia. The last one - in Kargil, a quarter of a century ago - brought two nuclear powers to the brink. Today, with both Pakistan and India armed with larger arsenals, and Afghanistan governed by a regime outside international norms, the risks are exponentially greater.

For Pakistan and Afghanistan, the choice is stark but simple: confrontation or cooperation. The former will ensure a future of perpetual instability, economic ruin, and diplomatic isolation. The latter could open the door to a new regional awakening - one where South Asia, finally, begins to live up to its promise.

mirmostafiz@yahoo.com