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An eventful year marked by tumultuous national developments and international conflicts raising at times the spectre of a World War III has just passed. The world has already welcomed the New Year with open arms in the hope that the looming threat of global trade suffering commercial convulsions due to US reciprocal tariff and the lengthening shadow of war does not materialise. The wish list of the international community this year is likely to see the gnawing of hunger for an ever increasing world population disappears fast.
However, leaders may be elected by popular vote but there is no guarantee they would as well respect the popular opinion. But this is a time when far-right nationalism is on the rise in Europe. These nationalist parties are characterised by ultra-nationalism, anti-immigration stand, Euroscepticism and populist anti-establishment rhetoric. The US also has a man at the helm of affairs, who is a fierce defender of similar nationalism. That man is Donald Trump who proves to be a political enigma and, therefore, naturally unpredictable. He claims to be a peace broker but at the same time keeps open his option for unseating Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro no matter if that needs waging a war on that country. His unreserved support for Israeli President Netanyahu even prompted him to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran. No international law can approve this. Also, his demand for annexing Greenland goes against international rules but he seems to be adamant and this is enough to irate the Danes.
Now with such a man in power of the most influential if not powerful country on the planet, it would perhaps be too much to expect a more peaceful world than last year's. Yet people never cease to hope because it offers a lifeline---one that is eternal. Martin Luther King Jr. Once said, "We must accept finite disappointment, but never lose infinite hope". Whether the living world would be a better place to live in this year or get obliterated from the surface of the Earth is not known but about one thing there is no doubt that sane people will try their best to save the world. But Trump turns a deaf year to appeals or advice from wise people.
Europe is not in a good state, in fact, it is showing that its decline has begun. In this atomic age, the world is more vulnerable than ever before and Europe's lack of courage is exposed by Trump's ultra-nationalistic approach to their mutual relations. Defiance is no European leader's forte. What stuff Indian premier Narendra Modi is made of, they simply were missing. Europe has lost the leadership expected of it in time of the tariff crisis. So the scenario that is likely to unfold may take a further test of their leadership quality. Much will depend on how they respond to the emerging crises.
In this context, the rise of China has turned out to be a headache for the Americans. If China and India can settle their border disputes and focus on business interests, the US will find itself in a tight corner. With Russia playing a mediating role, this is not impossible. Also the BRICS platform now expanding, the majority of humans living on this planet will be in this group. Their financial might will be a force to reckon with soon. Their bank, the New Development Bank (NDB) now located in Shanghai is going to fund infrastructure and sustainable development projects in the emerging market. It is expected to have regional branches in several of its member countries. It will not take long to see a clear shift in the economic and development affairs in the emerging member countries.
Against this background, the world trade may shape up differently from what once was dictated by the Bretton Woods institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB). Chinese technological transformation and the emerging collaborative financial system can surely challenge the US supremacy in these areas. With Russia taking a rearguard action, the BRICS group is a formidable force. Unless climate change severely upsets the BRICS' journey on the fast track, this will be the Asian age. The world will be watching how the group manages itself this year, a crucial time for a transition of the centre of power.
When the world is in the throes of expectation, Bangladesh's momentous July-August uprising produced, albeit by default, political optimism of unprecedented order only to be dissipated at the last half of the year 2025. There is serious doubt about holding the national polls on the scheduled date of February 12. The leaders of the student-led uprising has long lost their ways in the political labyrinth and now the party they formed called National Citizen Party is split over the election alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami. Gone are the spirits that the pioneers of the uprising demonstrated to bring about a fundamental change in the system of governance.
Unless the law and order is restored, election cannot be held peacefully and fairly. The caretaker government is acting like the proverbial ostrich that seeks dissipation of the storm by burying its head in the sand. If the rule of law cannot be restored in place of frequent summary trials by the mob, there is no knowing how the 'mobocracy' can be stopped. What awaits the voluminous charters the reform commissions duly produced is also not known. A national election without reform to the system of governance is no solution to the country's endemic problems such as capturing power and abusing it to stay in power and accumulate unearned wealth. No political party is oath-bound to approve the reform commissions' reports.
Apart from the fundamental political reforms, the issue of graduation from the LDC (least developed country) this year brings about a paradigm shift in foreign trade and the economy. Suggestions that tax on the rich should be raised for allocation to welfare programmes targeting the poor and marginal segments of society hardly stand any chance of materialising. Businesspeople are likely to oppose any such move. If the political government hopefully to be formed keeps their trust in such an equalitarian ideology, the poor can hope for better days ahead. Let the New Year bring about a socio-economic metamorphism towards a rational and just constitution of the country's demographic landscape once and for all.