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While Bangladesh and India have unveiled a plan for an expensive cross-border pipeline project to carry diesel after years of carrying fuel with lorries to power railway engines, Germany has launched its first-ever hydrogen-powered trains as means of emission-free, cost-effective alternative to diesel. And Germany is not alone. According to an AFP report, "Other countries are also looking into hydrogen trains, Alstom said, including Britain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Italy, and Canada." It's also been reported the France government has already said that it wants the first hydrogen train to be on the rails by 2022. As a replacement of polluting internal combustion engines, hydrogen trains are equipped with fuel cells that produce electricity through a combination of hydrogen and oxygen, a process that leaves steam and water as the only emissions. Upon powering trains, where will hydrogen likely be heading? Will hydrogen gain additional momentum to be preferred fuel to cause disruption to the polluting energy industry?
HYDROGEN IS COSTLY, ALSO NOT NECESSARILY CLEAN: At present, the capital cost for hydrogen train is more than the diesel-run trains. To power the train, it does not produce emission, that is perhaps good news as far as air pollution is concerned. But we need electrical power, often causing pollution, to produce hydrogen. If polluting power plants generate the electrical energy to produce hydrogen to run fuel cells for generating electricity back to power the trains or any other device, hydrogen runs short of claiming to be eco-friendly. Well, why is it then big news for Germany's rollout of hydrogen train? Is it just a technology demonstration having no viable economic as well as environmental potentials to scale up as a substitute to cause disruption to other forms of energy?
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE OFFERS POLLUTION-FREE LESS COSTLY HYDROGEN PRODUCTION: Hydrogen as a portable energy source is clean, but costly to produce and distribute. Moreover, it contributes to pollution, as its production requires electricity-often generated from polluting energy sources such as coal, gas or diesel. But there is a silver lining. As renewable energy picks up, hydrogen could be produced with virtually free electrical power generated at the peak. As the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow at the same intensity all the time, there is an issue of what to do with surplus electrical energy when renewable energy plants run at their peak. That surplus electrical energy could be used to produce hydrogen. As a result, the cost of hydrogen production will come down, and most importantly, the issue of causing pollution for the use of electricity in generating hydrogen will also be addressed. Moreover, as more and more trains are added to the hydrogen fuel pool, the cost of hydrogen production will keep coming down due to the economies of scale effect. The third problem is the infrastructure needed for distributing and filling hydrogen in fuel tanks.
LONG RANGE AND LOW OPERATING COST MAKE HYDROGEN AN ATTRACTIVE ALTERNATIVE: Similar to diesel, single-tank hydrogen can power a typical train to travel 1000 kilometres-which is unbeatable for battery. Hydrogen has no competitor for emission-free train service on non-electrified lines. As a result, although capital cost is high, hydrogen train is cheaper to run. The AFP report quoted Stefan Schrank, the Project's Manager at Alstom, as saying, "Sure, buying a hydrogen train is somewhat more expensive than a diesel train, but it is cheaper to run." Adoption of hydrogen to fuel trains will likely to address partly the infrastructure barrier faced by hydrogen to be preferred fuel to power green automobiles. The second boost to address infrastructure issue may likely to emerge from the refilling stations to be built to fill hydrogen tanks of large lorries.
POWERING TRAIN IS A NON-CONSUMPTION FOR HYDROGEN TO START BUILDING DISRUPTIVE MOMENTUM: Like many other technologies, despite having potential, hydrogen is suffering from a number of barriers. The infrastructure is one of the toughest barriers. As a result, Toyota and Honda, among other automakers, are facing tremendous difficulty to scale up the demand for their hydrogen vehicles. Powering trains with clean energy source could be a non-consumption for hydrogen. In one hand, it's quite costly to electrify railway tracks, on the other hand, the battery does not provide enough range for trains to run between cities, without the need for hours waiting to recharge batteries. As a result, despite the interest of having the clean source of energy in powering trains to combat growing air pollution issue, there was virtually no alternative to polluting diesel. For hydrogen, this could be a perfect example of non-consumption to penetrate the market to start building the momentum to cause disruption to other forms of energy to fuel vehicles.
SCALE, SCOPE, AND RENEWABLE WILL LIKELY BE ADDING MOMENTUM: The growing number of trains getting powered by hydrogen will simply keep decreasing the cost of hydrogen, and lowering the infrastructure barrier, consequentially facilitating the fuelling of other forms of vehicles like buses, trucks, and eventually cars with hydrogen. Moreover, in addition to technology advancement, the cost of hydrogen fuel cells will also be falling due to the scale and scope effect. The growing power generation from wind and sun will also offer the opportunity to produce hydrogen with virtually free energy, causing no pollution in the chain.
Will hydrogen cause disruption to the electric battery? This is a big question. Will hydrogen create the example of typical growth of disruptive technology? Will only the diesel be replaced by hydrogen? What about battery in powering automobile? The option of filling the tank in a couple of minutes to drive over 500 miles often makes hydrogen more attractive than the battery to power electric vehicles (EVs). Moreover, hydrogen fuel cell and tank are far lighter than 1000lb battery pack to power a typical car. Such a possibility raises the question: will hydrogen vehicle take over the battery-powered electric vehicle? Despite the potential, the number talks about the unfolding of a different scenario. According to EcoWatch reporting in reference to International Energy Agency, "more than one million EVs were sold in 2017..," that's a 54 per cent increase compared to 2016's sales. In comparison to this number of EVs, only 6000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sold, by the end of 2017 since they were launched, is quite insignificant. Does it mean that electric battery, not hydrogen fuel cell, will likely be powering the electric vehicle fleet of the 21st century?
Competing technology progression often creates quite an unpredictability about the likely future. Often such unpredictability poses a serious risk to policy adoptions and investment decisions. Should we prepare for hydrogen production, distribution and filling capacity, or for electric battery charging station? It is a serious question to answer. Minor inaccuracy could lead to significant loss-both investment and opportunity-wise. What should we do? It's time to interpret and predict evolving the dynamics of hydrogen vehicle innovation for adopting smart policies, and taking rational decisions in making investments for creating new wealth by leveraging evolving technology opportunities.
M. Rokonuzzaman, Ph.D, is Academic, Researcher and Activist: Technology, Innovation and Policy.