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Earlier in June this year when India and Pakistan were admitted as full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at the Astana, (Kazakhstan) summit, many eyebrows were raised if the group's cohesiveness would remain unaffected. The reason for this was not far to seek. In the last six decades, both India and Pakistan had been embroiled in deadly conflicts resulting in three wars. The unresolved Kashmir issue is at the centre of their dispute.
In addition, the recent Doklam border tensions between China and India at the Himalayan plateau and Delhi's refusal to join the Belt and Road initiative (B&R) has also raised questions about SCO's normal activities. Despite peaceful end of the Doklam impasse and Beijing's unilateral offer of an olive branch, Indo-China border tensions have not been eliminated.
It may be mentioned that following the establishment of SCO as a regional body in 2001, the problem of terrorism in central Asia has been contained and SCO's development has be stabilised. Before its expansion, the group consisted of China, Russia, Kazakhstan,
KYRGYZSTAN, TAJIKISTAN AND UZBEKISTAN: According to SCO documents, it was built on an equal footing and based on non-aligned principles. It focuses on collective regional goals such as anti-terrorism. The interest of one member has never transcended the collective interests by any member and it has never been used as a geopolitical tool. The admission of the two new members - though decided unanimously - have caused some worries because of the nature of their continuous bilateral feuds that defied solution for so long and may impact on the group's coherence.
On the eve of the SCO Astana summit, Chinese official English-language weekly the Global Times hoped in a commentary that the Astana summit will become the SCO's new milestone: "The robust and positive tradition is worth encouraging after the expansion of the SCO. If the success of suppressing terrorism and spirit of cooperation can be expanded to a border area, the SCO will have more guiding significance in the world…"
ADVANTAGES FOR INDIA AND PAKISTAN: Former Indian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Punchok Stobdan told Chinese news agency Xinhua in the first week of June this year: "Since becoming an observer country of the SCO in 2005, India has been seriously participating in the activities of SCO and aspiring to become a full member for a long time." A senior fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), Stobdan said, Delhi has many reasons to join the SCO and get direct connection with the Central Asian region.
According to Stobdan, India has signed dozens of memoranda and documents of political, economic, scientific and regional cooperation within the framework of SCO and would assimilate into the organisation as soon as possible to enhance cooperation as per SCO charter and other agreements. Stobdan was interviewed by Xinhua on the eve of the SCO Astana Summit held on June 8-9 which finally elected India and Pakistan as full SCO members.
Some experts, however, appeared more hopeful than others. One of them at the Centre for Nontraditional Security and Peaceful Development Hangzhou, China, Imran Ali Sandano felt that full SCO membership would be beneficial both for India and Pakistan. As for example, it would open new opportunities to intensify relations with Eurasian states and develop strong relations to address shared security concerns, especially in fighting terrorism and containing threats posed by the Taliban and IS. Besides, as full SCO member, India will participate in the annual SCO counter-terror exercises and military drills that would help Indian armed forces better understand operational tactics.
Likewise, Pakistan also could build up trade linkages with many landlocked Central Asian states and raise socio-economic connectivity. Besides, it could open doors for Pakistan for getting cheap energy supply from Kyrgyzstan. This is also not going to be a one-way traffic. The two prominent South Asian countries can also add more strength and greater voice to the group.
PROSPECTS OF ASSIMILATION ALSO FRAUGHT WITH ANXIETY: How this new expanded SCO fares in the coming days will largely depend on the founding members to ensure that the new members are absorbed and integrated gainfully. Discussing the subject, nontraditional security expert Mr. Imran Ali Sandano in an article in the Global Times opined: "It would be a great test for China and Russia to make sure that all sides act as per the SCO norms."
Perhaps what he meant was that India maintains closer ties with Russia but it distances from China while China has a very cordial relation with Pakistan. So, both the leading SCO members should use their closer ties to carefully monitor and help the two new members' sensitivities and smooth ruffled feathers in case of any such development. Sandano also said that both the new and existing SCO members should work together and "make this organisation a comprehensive regional platform".
Naturally, Beijing was also anxious about any such propensity. Just before the Astana summit, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying broached this issue and said that Beijing sincerely hoped India and Pakistan could conduct "friendly cooperation and improve ties after joining the SCO and inject new vitality into the development of the organisation."
Meanwhile, the launching of $57-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2014 to link China's northern state with Pakistan's Gwador port at the Arabian Sea has annoyed India and is the major reason for Delhi's refusal to join the B & R initiative. The corridor runs through the Pakistan-administered part of disputed Kashmir which to India is unacceptable.
However, despite the existence of some negativity, there are positive aspects to it also. The retired Indian diplomat and IDSA fellow Stobdan expressing his optimism said: "The SCO is a good platform for India to engage and interact with the member countries on the related issues…. It is also good that the leaders of the member countries can meet very often under the SCO".
Besides, pointing out that stability of the region, Stobdan underlined: "We don't want Central Asia to become another Afghanistan, Syria or Iraq…Central Asia is also rich in natural resources, energy and gas, India wants to (take the) advantage of energy supplies."