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In the UN sustainable development agenda, 'Zero Hunger' is the 2nd most important goal. Among the global 800 million undernourished people, South Asia faces the greatest hunger burden with about 281 million undernourished people.
Almost 500 million small farms worldwide provide up to 80 per cent of food consumed in a large parts of the developing world. Among them 15 millions are in Bangladesh, producing enough food for 160 million people. To address the food consumption's projected growth, the target is to double the agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers by 2030.
We have to achieve this target in a way that strengthens the capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters. In addition to grain, we have to ramp up production of animal protein too. According to a study done by the World Bank, aquaculture will contribute 60 per cent to 186 million tons fish to be produced by 2030, up from 154 million tons in 2011. On the meat side, global poultry meat uptake is forecast to increase by 1.7kg per person from around 13.2kg in 2013 to 14.9kg in 2023. On one hand, we have to produce more food to address current undernourishment and feed increasing populations who are likely to push world population size to 9.5 billion by 2050. On the other hand, we have to protect and preserve the losing arable land, almost one-third of which got lost in the last 40 years.
The reality is that to feed the growing population, we need to keep increasing food production despite the diminishing arable lands. Productivity improvement is the only option. And we have to increase the productivity which is sustainable, and which also increases income level of 500 million small farms. This vast number of small farms mostly follows labour-intensive production processes. For example, according to 2013 survey of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, a 26 million-strong labour force is employed in Bangladesh's agricultural sector. Often times, it has been found that human? judgment in deciding about the input doze and actions to dispense them are major causes behind wastage and sub-optimal farming yield.? Although agriculture is the major source of employment in most of the developing countries, engagement of humans in production is the major barrier to productivity improvement. For example, replacement of human role in shrimp aquaculture with machines has resulted in increase of over 20 per cent of feed-to-meat conversion ratio. But, the replacement or augmentation of human capability in sensing, deciding and taking action in farming should also increase profitability of small farms.
The major challenge is about increasing the precision of farming inputs and dispensing them precisely. Initial finding indicates that progress along this front can play significant role in addressing the requirement of doubling the food production by 2030. Moreover, progress in it will also increase sustainability and expand the production as well. For example, while in India the agricultural sector consumes 82 per cent of total supply of water, only one-third of the total cultivated area is irrigated. But such huge consumption of water has raised the concern of 'water-use efficiency'.
Although irrigation along with fertilisers and improved seeds has been essential components of global strategy for increasing agricultural productivity, wastage and non-uniform distribution has been a limiting factor of productivity growth. The role of humans in the production process has been the major underlying bottleneck. The growth of cyber physical system, commonly known as Industry 4.0, is opening the profitable opportunity for agriculture to increase the yield in a sustainable manner by delegating roles from human workforce to intelligent systems. Agricultural machinery being equipped with cognitive and motor actions will increase both effectiveness and efficiency of dispensing farming inputs, including water. For example, sensors sitting at the root of tomato plants will provide precise moisture level, software will decide about the water need based on related variables such as plant growth pattern and likely rainfall, and computer controlled valve will dispense the exact amount just in the vicinity of roots, instead of flooding nearby areas. In a study in India, the yield-gap analysis revealed that about 40 per cent of the difference in yield between precision and non-precision farming is due to the use of advanced technology. Moreover, the study also revealed that the net return of tomato cultivation under precision farming technology was found to be 300 per cent higher than that of non-precision technology.
Similar findings are being reported in other areas of food production. For example, in fish farming, smart feeder system is able to reduce the feed a farm uses by about 21 per cent, according to a recent report. Internet of Things (IoT) is opening the opportunity to put overfeeding and underfeeding in aquaculture to an end. Such development is opening the opportunity to meet projected fish production demand, without stretching the limit. In poultry industry, with feed accounting for up to 70 per cent of total production costs, efficiency of use is one of the crucial factors as broiler growers look for margins. Researchers are tagging radio frequency identifier on the wing and neck when they are about two weeks old. Their feeding activities are then monitored. Based on data, birds are feed just in time resulting in 25 per cent increase in productivity.
Production system equipped with sensing, software and electric motors are primarily termed as cyber physical systems, nicknamed Industry 4.0. And Industry 4.0 is considered to be unwelcome, particularly in developing counties, as it kills jobs. But, its role in increasing the productivity and reducing the wastage in farming appears to be extremely high. By augmenting human capability, in certain cases even replacing them, with cyber physical systems appears to be an indispensable option to address our agenda of hunger-free world. It's also true that agriculture is the major opportunity of employment in South Asia, where such improvement is supposed to take place. It's also true that technology is not fully developed, moreover case-specific customised development is supposed to take place to make them profitable solutions to millions of very small firms.
To address the job-loss issue, the policy could be to focus on developing local innovation capacity, instead of importing readily usable systems. Advanced countries will supply individual components such as sensors or motors. But conceptualisation of farm or crop specific solutions, software development, customisation, installation and up-gradation should take place in local environment. Such local innovation capacity development will create new jobs, mostly for university graduates though.
Although integration of Industry 4.0 in farming will reduce manual jobs, it will create innovation jobs for the youths of farming families. Moreover, it has also the potential to increase profitability, resulting in higher family income. Therefore, it could be reasoned that intelligent farming around Industry 4.0 technology is a blessing for creating innovation jobs, increasing food production, and reducing wastage of farm inputs for addressing the 'Zero Hunger' goal.
M Rokonuzzaman Ph.D, academic, researcher and activist: Technology, Innovation and Policy, is Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North South University, Bangladesh.