Internal migration: a problem or a solution?

Migration, both internal and external, is a significant indicator of the economic status and growth   patterns in Bangladesh and other developing economies. However, while external migration has become identified generally with prosperity production, internal migration is seen as that of poverty and disaster management. But both are indicators of change aspirations.

Bangladesh has shifted from only an agro-labour dependent economy to an external labour market demand based one too. Share of agriculture in Bangladesh's gross domestic product was 11.63 per cent, industry contributed approximately 33.32 per cent and the services sector contributed about 51 per cent.

So external labour demand, be it work abroad or in the RMG sector which profits from internal low labour wages is the majority. Though internal labour market destinations are limited, the capacity of the agro-sector to provide employment to many is limited too.

Internal migration is also prone to shocks such as natural disasters and epidemics apart from the general trend of job seeking. The recent Covid epidemic ate into poverty reduction gains followed by the Ukrainian war. Price levels have gone up in general including due to inflation and so has urban poverty. 

These are however, not long term trends but expose the fragility of the bottom half population of the economy.  Internal migration isn't totally discreet from the external migration scenario either as most of the external migrants are from the rural areas too. For example, decline in foreign hiring impacts on the local economy shrinkage that promotes internal migration too as the Covid period showed. 

RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION CAUSES

Economic needs, natural disasters including climate change, and aspiration for better socio-economic access are drivers of internal migration. Social causes have become a factor as new choices are made in lifestyle scenarios. But remittance remains a key factor in internal migration.

"21.1 per cent  households  received  remittances  from  domestic  migration  in  contrast  with  8.8 per cent  households  from international migration. That  is,  focus  and  intervention  regarding  internal  migration management and its comprehensive  outcomes on  life and  livelihood, except  rapid urbanization is neglected. ." (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319178262)   (Rural- urban Migration in Bangladesh and Its Nexus with Some Socioeconomic Indicators at Origin and Destination jointly with Dr Mohammad Mahmood Riad Dr Jasim Uddin Ahmed IJournals_International_Journal)

INTERNAL MIGRATION AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION

Poverty has been declining in both rural and urban areas, but more swiftly in the rural areas. Between 2010 and 2016, it accounted for 90 per cent of poverty reduction but households engaged in agriculture saw slower falls than among households in industry and services. This trend continues.

However, the pace of job creation and poverty reduction has slowed over the last decade. "Estimated poverty went from 13.47 in 2016 to 10.44 in 2022 (using the international poverty line of $2.15). The latest official poverty statistics for 2016/17 show that 24.3 per cent of the population lives below the upper poverty line while half of them, 12.9 per cent, live under the extreme poverty line, based on strata specific national upper and lower poverty lines. The national estimates for 2016 thus represent sustained progress in reducing poverty."

But progress remains vulnerable. The Covid-19 pandemic stalled poverty reduction and affected the poor negatively far more. Although employment levels improved in the post Covid situation, earnings have not reached pre-pandemic levels yet. It caused significant reverse migration to the rural areas but the rates of rural to urban migration are rising again.  In fact, rural population growth rate in Bangladesh has now gone minus but urban population growth rate is very high which means internal migration is rising. (Macrotrends)

DESTINATIONS FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION 

A study of internal migration says that the destinations for rural migrants are few, pushing concentration towards Dhaka mostly. This puts enormous pressure on the urban infrastructure, much of it in the informal sector. "Excessive population, increase density and pollution, thereby decreasing living standards." The study authors suggest major policy reforms, education, training, and work opportunities for migrants in the area of origin to reduce pressure on migration to cities as the only way out. (Dynamics of internal migration in Bangladesh: Trends, patterns, determinants, and causes: Md. Zakiul Alam, Abdullah Al Mamun. PLOS. Published: February 14, 2022)

Internal migration is therefore about absorption of economic demand which is poverty reduction both of rates and the total population affected by poverty. 

Estimates of poverty indicate that around a quarter are still below the poverty line of which half are extremely poor. Though the national estimates for 2016 represent sustained progress in reducing poverty this pace has to increase. People therefore will continue to seek migration as a poverty alleviation tool.

FORMAL STRATEGY, INFORMAL SECTOR

Bangladesh's progress in reducing poverty yet having large poor population reflects sustained economic growth and challenges both. As the country is rapidly urbanizing, its rural and urban areas did not experience the same prosperity.

Migration is largely informal, whether internal or external and that means they benefit less from formal GOB policies. Policy planners and think tanks are also from the formal world so their suggestions are not always realistic or innovative. New lenses are required for policy formulation and action reflecting the dominance of informality in Bangladesh socio economics including migration, external and internal.

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