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6 years ago

The impact of sanctions

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Bangladesh's trading with Iran continues to be positive in spite of an almost 50 per cent decline. That would explain partly the bite that US Sanctions has had. But even the $ 50 million odd volume could be at risk as we probe newer markets for our exports. Now that the European Union's (EU's) appeal for an exemption on trade with Iran has been nullified it would appear the US is leading 1-0 in the global trade war. The second round will no doubt come as the EU seeks preferential trade with China in an attempted counter to the bigger trade war. [The EU has already signed a free trade agreement with Japan.] With ZTE having paid nearly $ 2.0 billion in punitive charges partly for trading with Iran in return to resume exports to the US, the emerging facts, gory or otherwise, suggest a bruising battle ahead. Eurozone leaders were on a 'charm' mission to China and Japan, even though Mr. Abe cancelled his Brussels visit. The desperation is not without merits. For all the tough posturing Europe has to worry about what happens to its exports to the UK which in turn will be doing its own wooing though initial overtures had failed during Mr. Cameron's tenure.

The sanctions game is, without doubt unfair. If Donald Trump can meet chairman Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the middle of all sanctions he could have sorted out Iran's issue as equivocally. That he chooses not to and prefers a no-agenda dialogue with Mr. Putin has different ramifications, no doubt influenced by his wolfish National Security Advisor John Bolton. So much so that a Russian commentator could see a few bright lights ahead as long as Mr. Bolton pulled the shots.

For all practical purposes Mr. Putin spoke in `Cold War rhetoric, made no concessions and actually had Mr. Trump berate former US administrations for the mess the two countries' relations are in. He also ducked questions about Russia's meddling in the US Presidential elections thereby giving credence to Mr. Putin's denial. But this is Donald Trump and 12 Russians haven't just been indicted by the US Department of Justice for nothing.

Neither President Trump said anything about the sanctions that the US imposed or the expulsion of Russian diplomats over the Skripal poisoning. And it was Mr. Putin who emerged as the winner in a game that had no rules or boundaries in the historic confines of Helsinki. He got all his messages across be it Iran or Syria. That he deigned to meet Mr. Trump after all that has ensued further stamps his authority as a leader of substance able to step over irritants in the quest for a humane face. Most Russian leaders have lacked this. The World Cup was a point for Russia to prove in the face of sanctions. For all his KGB orientation Mr. Putin is standing out even as Mr Trump returns with his 'good beginning'.

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