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4 years ago

To resume or not to resume  

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The government may have to extend the lockdown until the end of this month or beyond to rein in the deadly coronavirus, but at the same time it needs to resume economic activities, at least, partially very soon to save millions of jobs and protect livelihoods. By all accounts it's a catch-22 situation.

The dilemma is not just for Bangladesh. All the countries afflicted with the pandemic are having the same situation. They are, in fact, desperate to start their economic activities anew, but cannot do so because they are confronted by a health emergency of unprecedented scale. Besides, there remains a severe risk of resurgence of the disease with far greater ferocity in the event of slackening of the lockdown.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned against any hasty withdrawal of lockdown since such a move could lead to a very dangerous situation.

President Donald Trump, who leads the world's most powerful nation, appears to be very eager to reopen the US economy. He is found to be more interested in starting the operations of the US stock market than meeting the health emergencies in his country. The US now has nearly one-third of the total COVID-19 cases worldwide. It has also the highest number of deaths. 

There is no denying some of the statements Mr. Trump made since the outbreak of the disease in the Chinese city of Wuhan back in December last have misled the US people about the imminent danger of a coronavirus outbreak. He did openly underestimate the coronavirus's strength. Rather, he tried to politicise the outbreak, pointing accusing finger at China. Whether his mishandling of the situation would have any impact on the upcoming US presidential election remains to be seen.  Surprisingly, Trump's ratings went up five points in the polls by the end of last month.

The US president's concerns about his country's economy are very much justified since in just three weeks' time, the pandemic has thrown 17 million people out of jobs.

If the situation remains so in a country like the USA, the level of desperation in the case of Bangladesh does not need any elaboration. The formal part of the economy employs asmaller number of people than the informal one. Moreover, there is no provision of offering unemployment benefits by the government in this country.

It is hard to know the impact of the ongoing shutdown on the employment situation in Bangladesh. The large manufacturing units have not yet gone for shedding of jobs. It is most likely that smaller ones have started cutting jobs. All industrial units, big and small, are closed for more than a fortnight and they are unlikely to reopen during the current month.

Thousands of workers who are employed in small factories and workshops are unlikely to be paid by their employers for the period under review. Then there are millions of people who work in the construction and informal services sector. They are in serious difficulty in the absence of any earning for days together.

The urban poor are in a far more difficult situation than their rural counterparts. The latter are at least receiving some essential food items being provided by the government notwithstanding some incidents of misappropriation of the same. The lower middleclass people are the most unfortunate ones. They are neither given necessary support from any quarter nor canthey seek any help from anyone.

Some poor people are heard complaining to newsmen that if the lockdown continued for some more days, they would die from starvation before the virus gets hold of them.

The economic activities are needed to be resumed not for meeting the government's growth target but for saving jobs and helping millions survive in a desperate situation. This is, however, only possible in a situation free from the fear of being infected by the virus.

The country, it is told by experts, is yet to enter the fourth stage of corona infection. It may take a couple of weeks more to reach that stage. None knows for sure what will be the actual state of infection then.

Even flattening of the upward curve in the rates of infection and death and subsequent decline, experts say, do not make the situation perfect for starting life and economic activities anew. There remains the risk of resurgence of the virus infection.

Yet countries are unlikely to wait that long to resume economic activities. They might find it is worth taking the risk. 

Since the job of finding a suitable vaccine against the Novel coronavirus is likely to take 12 to 18 months more, all eyes are now focussed on drugs that might be effective in treating the COVID-19 disease. If that is found, then the battle will be partially won. The countries will then have justified reasons to relax lockdown and resume all economic activities in limited form. The world has already entered a recessionary phase, the worst one witnessed since the great depression of 1930s, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  It will be a hard battle for all nations.

 

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