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Puzzlingly, the world is now being led by some crazy men who may be generically different from philosophical madmen like our bauls and tantric fakirs but they are no less popular in their respective countries. These madmen have political virtues, if not spiritual. To their people, they are like new saviours, new messengers, whose gospel is: "Our Country First". Their ballads, unlike our bauls' and fakirs', are expressed sometimes by missiles, sometimes by computer hackers, and at times by tweets. If any of these leaders, may God forbid, win in their strategies, definition of 'leadership' will have to be revised.
People under their leadership had been so fed up with their so-called sane leaders in the past that they believe time has finally arrived when only an insane person or a crazy dictator could salvage them from all the curses and miseries. Rhetoric language of these leaders, though completely bereft of content or sincerity, has a persuasive and magical effect on their fans and followers. Those fans would have been happy to listen to a popular Bangladeshi pop song sung by our Lalon Band, if only that could be translated into their own language: "cvMj Qvov `ywbqv P‡jbv" (The world cannot run without a madman's intervention).
Madmen are privileged with tons of advantages. They are capricious and their unpredictability is their best offensive as well as defensive weapons. They are granted immunity from attack; they enjoy special rights to do whatever they fancy. They dress as they like, they behave as they dream. They are kings in their imaginary world. They don't beg, they demand. A wise man, who doesn't want his boat to be rocked, fears to agitate such a madman.
On Sunday, Kim Jon Un, the leader of North Korea, has succeeded to detonate a Hydrogen Bomb, a 50-kilo ton device three times the size of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945, when others thought he would not. A massive vibration emanated from North Korea. It felt like a brief earthquake. The tremor was real, signalling a significant leap forward for the nation's nuclear capabilities. Kim can now boastfully advertise himself as a fearful beast. He has now earned a prestigious status to negotiate from a position of strength with any power of the world.
Many defence veterans however believe North Korea's current nuclear and missile capability is more image than reality. They may have missiles that have the necessary range to reach areas of strategic importance, provided they actually work. There is no concrete evidence that they have the accuracy to deliver a payload close enough to any target to be effective. Whether the test was real or a mock-up, whether it was a Hydrogen Bomb or something else, is yet to be verified. Experts believe North Korea tested a "boosted" atomic bomb by using tritium, a common enhancement technique that produces a higher explosive yield. That North Korea holds some thermonuclear weapons is beyond doubt.
The events of the latest nuclear tests and probable missile launching in the immediate future have captured headlines and fired the imagination of analysts and strategists around the world. The next few days will be full of diplomatic pow-wows at which North Korea's reckless behaviour will doubtless be debated.
The other day, Harry J. Kazianis, Director of Defence Studies at the Centre for the National Interest in USA said: "North Korea could be destroyed within 20 minutes if it were to attack South Korea, Japan or the United States." President Donald Trump is not happy with the countries who are too soft on North Korea. He lashed out at South Korea for their 'appeasement mentality' and may consider cancelling America's free-trade agreement with Seoul.
Anytime, an accidental confrontation---an ICBM dropping on Japan or South Korea---may dramatically change the whole scenario. US retaliation, if the neighbouring countries agree, will spark a new war in the peninsula, a war nobody, no superpower wants.
China, the superpower and the only ally of North Korea, holds the right key to defuse the tension. It may be of some advantage for China to have a friendly relationship with Kim, the naughty boy, who can be used for a war by proxy. But Kim is not the guy who can be relied upon for any discreet strategy.
China's president, Xi Jinping, has already shown signs of losing patience with Mr. Kim, recently agreeing to stronger United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang. He should genuinely fear that a war in the peninsula and subsequent collapse in North Korea could lead to a wave of hungry refugees and a scramble for North Korea's territory and nuclear weapons.
The best option for every superpower is "complete" isolation of North Korea through further UN sanctions and diplomacy, though possibility of a resolution through diplomacy may not be possible given the mental make-up of Kim and his supporters. Despite immense effort over the last two decades---from sanctions to increasing isolation and international ostracisation---the impoverished country with one of the lowest per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in the world has not been tamed. Kim is not to lose his nuclear leverage. Sanctions alone will not yield any change. North Korean people will be asked to eat grass, if necessary, and fight tooth and nail to save the Kim dynasty.
Everyone knows Kim Jon Un as a madman, a special and technical identity the bloodthirsty buffoon has craftily exploited to his advantage to become the world's most enigmatic and unpredictable dictator.
Kim perhaps learnt from the foreign policy of Richard Nixon, the 37th President of the United States, a theory called 'madman theory' with a view to hoodwinking the world into believing that he is dangerously unpredictable so that no nation dares to provoke North Korea, fearing an unpredictable response from him, the Great Madman. No prudent leader who doesn't want to see his boat to be rocked will make any attempt that may agitate Kim.
What response to Kim's madness can now the world expect from the American President Donald Trump, another beauty, whose weapon is a Tweeter Account? He may tweet a maximum of 140 characters laced with a threat to annihilate North Korea. He can order complete naval and air blockade, move sufficient air and sea power into the Korean peninsula to prevent any shipping or air traffic from entering and leaving North Korea.
But things could be ratcheted if Kim launches another missile over South Korea or Guam, if not again over Japan. In that event, instead of tweeting, Trump may be tempted to order flying fake drones over North Korea before raining his real "fire and fury" over the launching sites of North Korean Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. An apocalypse will set in.
Nevertheless, Kim is still a paper tiger and a master of puppet show. His country's economy is too weak even to wage a conventional war, let alone a nuclear one. But, it would be dangerously naïve to deem Kim a charlatan selling snake oil. His real strength does not spring from those missiles and underground nuclear tests. His real powerbase is elsewhere from where he gets supplies to flex his nuclear muscles.
US President Donald Trump may enter history as a courageous leader despite his other minor shortcomings if he can manage to tame North Korea. But the problem is Kim is intoxicated with his newfound power which he would be using for asking unlimited financial and political concessions. Can America satiate Kim's gluttonous thirst? Probably, no.
If the world remains silent, another madman, as fat and as crazy as Kim, may crop up to threaten those who are now threatening others. Present and future despots will thus be encouraged to dance on 'madman theory'. Alas! 'Madman Theory' is so highly contagious that it may influence one country after another, leading to a world teeming with mad nations and madmen.