Govt sets sights high on $65b export this fiscal

An ambitious export target of US$65 billion is proposed for this fiscal year with the government having gauged all the ground realities and global and local economic scenarios, officials say.

The uppish export turnover for 2025-26 reflects a 17.22-percent growth over the estimated export earnings of $55.45 billion in the just-past FY2024-25.

According to sources at the Ministry of Commerce, the proposed target includes $56.5 billion from goods and $8.5 billion from services. The estimated growth rates are 17 per cent for goods and 18.67 per cent for services.

Initially, the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) proposed a target of $63.5 billion for FY2025-26-with $55 billion to come from goods and $8.5 billion from services-with an overall annualised growth of 14.52 per cent. The proposed growth rates in that estimate were 13.91 per cent for goods and 18.67 per cent for services.

However, the Ministry of Commerce has moved to revise the goods-export target to add another $1.5 billion by increasing projections in key sectors such as RMG, leather, jute, and home textiles.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, ministry officials said the final target would be announced next week, after the return of the commerce adviser and the commerce secretary from the United States, where tariff-deal negotiations are on stream.

In FY2024-25, Bangladesh's total export turnover is estimated $55.45 billion, comprising $48.28 billion from goods and $7.16 billion from services, with a modest 8.48-percent overall growth over the previous year.

For the just-started FY2025-26, the EPB has listed ten major product sectors within the goods category to drive export growth. These growth drivers have been assigned ambitious targets with a strong emphasis on diversification and value addition. The proposed figures were developed based on each sector's performance in FY2024-25 and projections for global demand.

According to the EPB proposals, the readymade garment (RMG) sector, which continues to dominate the country's export landscape, has to fetch $44.49 billion, up 13.07 per cent from the past. Knitwear is projected to earn $23.7 billion with 12.01-percent growth while woven garments expected to generate $20.79 billion, growing by 14.31 per cent.

However, apparel exporters have expressed concern over the ongoing US tariff issue, warning that the sector's growth may be impacted if negotiations finally fail to secure a favourable outcome for Bangladesh compared to its competitors.

The home-textile sector is targeted to generate $1.02 billion, with an expected growth of 17.03 per cent, rebounding from a modest 2.42-percent growth in the bygone fiscal year.

After contracting by 4.10 per cent in FY2024-25, the jute-and jute-goods sector has been allocated a target of $1.0 billion, eyeing a 9.73-percent recovery, through leveraging government support and increased global demand for eco-friendly products.

With a proposed target of $1.25 billion, the leather-and leather-products sector is expected to grow by 9.16 per cent, following 10.19-percent growth in the previous fiscal year, driven by diversification beyond raw leather.

Pharmaceuticals sector is projected to reach $235 million, with an expected 10.25-percent growth, improving from 3.74-percent increase last year. The ramped-up growth is to be supported by growing global demand and domestic production capacity.

Agricultural products are to generate $1.21 billion, with expected growth of 22.43 per cent in a leap from a modest 2.52-percent increase last year. High-potential segments include tobacco, fruits, and spices.

Engineering products are projected to earn $627 million, marking 17.07-percent growth, building on a solid 10.03-percent gain in FY2024-25. Export prospects remain strong in areas like bicycles and electrical goods.

Exports from the frozen-and live-fish sector are targeted at $539 million, anticipating a growth of 22.06 per cent after a robust 17.23-percent increase last year. Key subcategories include shrimp and frozen fish.

Commerce Ministry officials, also requesting anonymity, have said the target was set after assessing the global economic outlook, inflation trends, exchange-rate volatility and changing policies in key export destinations.

They note that policy changes in export markets, along with trade reports from the WTO and the IMF, were reviewed to gauge shifting trade dynamics. Additionally, inputs from industry stakeholders, buyers' orders, and the impact of global inflation on consumer behaviour were taken into account.

The export target also aligns with government's long-term vision to achieve $150 billion in export earnings by 2030, as outlined in the Export Policy 2024-27, which has set an interim goal of $110 billion for FY2026-27.

An internal EPB report also reveals that, in FY2024-25, only 19 out of 61 missions were able to achieve export targets handed to them, while just three out of 20 commercial wings got to their respective goals.

President of BKMEA Mohammad Hatem says, "We are worried that if we fail to negotiate a reduction in US tariffs, it will impact our exports to the largest market."

"If the newly imposed 35-percent tariff is added to the existing 15 per cent, it will be a disaster," he adds.

However, the BKMEA president is also optimistic about a positive outcome from the ongoing tariff negotiations with the USA.

Hatem says the government should take the initiative to explore non-traditional markets-such as Asian countries and Russia-to help achieve the export target for FY26.

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