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The outgoing fiscal year (FY), 2024-25, ended with mixed outcomes for Bangladesh's economy, the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Dhaka (MCCI) has said.
"Though growth remains sluggish, the quarter under review (Q4 of FY25) showed early signs of a turnaround," the MCCI said in its quarterly economic review for April-June 2025 released on Tuesday.
Increased export earnings and remittance inflows have helped stabilise foreign currency reserves and inject some vitality into the economy, according to the country's oldest chamber.
As per the recent data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter edged up to 4.86 per cent from 4.48 per cent in the second quarter, offering a mild sign of improvement.
Inflation also eased slightly, falling to 8.48 per cent in June.
However, annual average inflation remained steep, averaging 10.03 per cent - well above comfortable levels, the leading trade body added.
"Still, several structural issues continue to weigh heavily on recovery," the MCCI said, adding that weak private sector credit growth, declining imports of capital machinery, and falling investment levels have all contributed to slower economic momentum.
Furthermore, longstanding problems in the banking sector, including regulatory gaps and widespread loan irregularities, have hampered broader recovery efforts, it added.
The MCCI noted that ongoing reforms to improve financial governance and restore public confidence in banks will be crucial for reviving growth and ensuring long-term economic stability.
The chamber also observed that Bangladesh's economy is striving to overcome challenges arising from the current political uncertainty and the conflicting world scenario.
Projecting for the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the MCCI said exports and imports may increase in the next three months.
"Remittances and foreign exchange reserve may decrease in July, then increase in the next two months. Inflation, however, is likely to go down slowly in July, August, and September of FY26," it noted.
Regarding the gas price situation, the MCCI said the government's decision to raise gas prices for new industries by an average of 33 per cent, defying strong opposition from industrialists and business leaders, is being widely criticised for a multitude of reasons.
First, the industrial gas tariff hike came amid the country's bleak investment scenario and macroeconomic vulnerability, and thereby, may put further damper on new investment, it added.
"In this context, when investors are already unnerved by high interest rates, prolonged political uncertainty, and comparatively high inflation, the increase in utility prices comes as yet another blow," the chamber warned.
It also said the decision is feared to further dampen the already subdued investment climate, hinder industrial growth, impede job creation, and slow down economic recovery.
The exchange rate of the Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) against the US dollar has depreciated since the end of June 2022, according to the MCCI.
Between FY24 June-end and FY25 June-end, the value of BDT depreciated by 3.89 per cent in terms of the US dollar.
On the inter-bank market, the US dollar was quoted at Tk 118.00 per dollar at the end of June 2024 and Tk 122.77 at the end of June 2025.
To contain the persistent foreign exchange pressure, the Bangladesh Bank (BB) as well as the government took various policy measures, aided by a steady inflow of remittances and lower import payments, the trade body added.
The central bank sold a net value of $503.38 million in the foreign exchange market during July-June of FY25, compared to net sales of $9,415.94 million in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year, according to the MCCI.
About the implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP), the MCCI said the implementation rate in the just-concluded FY25 was sluggish, recording a 20-year low, raising concerns about the country's economic development and job creation.
The execution rate was only 67.85 per cent in FY25, 12.78-percentage-point lower than the 80.63 per cent in the previous fiscal year.
Experts attribute this unprecedented slowdown to a confluence of factors, including bureaucratic hurdles, cautious spending with strict monitoring, dropping many big projects and cutting segments of some ongoing ones, a cautious approach to new project approvals amid global economic uncertainties, and a perceived lack of urgency in project execution by various ministries and implementing agencies.
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