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Bangladesh is experiencing a troubling reversal in poverty reduction, particularly in the aftermath of Covid-19, as inflationary pressures and political instability continue to weigh on the economy, according to experts.
They pointed to economic growth strategies with little emphasis on job creation, inadequate access to health and education, gender inequality, rural-urban disparity, and sluggish investment as the main drivers of this reversal.
The observations came at a webinar titled "What is Driving the Poverty Reversal in Bangladesh?" organised by the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC) as part of its public policy dialogue series Ajker Agenda.
PPRC Executive Chairman Dr Hossain Zillur Rahman moderated the session and presented findings from a recent study.
Distinguished panellists included Chairman of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Prof Rehman Sobhan, CPD Executive Director Dr Fahmida Khatun, former vice-chancellor of Bangladesh Agricultural University (BAU) Dr MA Sattar Mandal, BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) Executive Director Dr Imran Matin, and South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM) Executive Director Dr Selim Raihan.
Presenting his centre's study, Dr Zillur said poverty in Bangladesh has increased by nearly 10 per cent since 2022. Although 18 per cent of the population remains above the poverty line, they are still highly vulnerable to sliding back due to multiple shocks.
The study identified five major vulnerabilities: prevalence of chronic illness, a disproportionately large share of extreme poor in female-headed households (24pc), rising household debt, food insecurity, and inadequate sanitation. These, he argued, have pushed more families into poverty or kept them trapped within it.
He also pointed to rising unemployment, noting that the number of jobless people reached 2.73 million in the last quarter of 2024. Inadequate access to education is another driver of generational poverty, with nearly 15.5 per cent of school-age children between five and 18 years not in school, largely due to poverty.
"There is the risk of generational poverty getting entrenched through the loss of human capital," he warned.
Prof Rehman Sobhan criticised the interim government for failing to put poverty reduction on its reform agenda. He argued that policymakers could have undertaken a comprehensive review of the 20 or so fragmented and overlapping social protection schemes.
"It would not have taken a work of genius nor a huge amount of time to actually do an exercise like that," he said.
Dr Selim Raihan warned that the real situation might be worse than what current data shows. Despite Bangladesh being hailed by development partners as a "poster-boy" of high economic growth, he said this growth has not been proportionately translated into job creation.
Instead, inequality has widened, and health and education deprivation - what he called "health poverty" and "educational poverty" - remain pervasive.
He added that the type and quality of education also determine the employment prospects of individuals, making inequalities in education particularly damaging for the poor.
Echoing these concerns, Dr Fahmida Khatun attributed the poverty reversal to a combination of economic, social, political, and climate-related vulnerabilities.
She described Bangladesh's trajectory as one of "jobless growth," where GDP expansion has not generated sufficient employment opportunities.
She pointed out that private investment has remained stuck at around 23-24 per cent of GDP for over a decade, while foreign direct investment has consistently hovered below 1.0 per cent. These stagnant investment levels, coupled with limited social safety nets, have constrained inclusive development.
"Persisting inequality, worsened by inadequate access to education and healthcare, is a key factor behind the reversal," she observed. Prof Sattar Mandal drew attention to the rural economy, where poverty rates are higher than in urban areas.
He attributed this to three key factors: a secular decline in agricultural growth, reduced purchasing power of agricultural workers, and a slump in rural non-farm employment opportunities. Together, these forces have deepened rural hardship and slowed poverty reduction.
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