Fresh STP estimates big-budget investment worth $59b

A big-budget investment of US$59 billion is estimated in an updated strategic plan to improve Dhaka's transport system as officials say lacking in planning heretofore resulted in the capital city's deteriorating traffic situation.

The investment requirement has been proposed in the Strategic Transport Plan (STP), now being revised for a second time, for next 20 years, sources said, with focus on bus-route rationalization and upgrading traffic controls.

They mentioned that the government is revising the plan to find solution to the chaotic traffic situation -- allegedly caused by a lack of proper initiatives over the past 20 years -- and to focus on traffic management and bus-network improvements.

According to the latest proposal, the estimated investment requirement has soared by 186 per cent over the past 10 years since the 2015 STP and by 737 per cent over the last 20 years since the 2005 STP.

Transport-expert Professor Mohammad Shamsul Hoque says the investment need has been gradually rising over the decades due to a focus on capital-intensive investments in previous STPs -- without addressing foundational improvements in bus services, pavements, or signalling systems.

In the STP 2015, also known as RSTP, an investment of $20.57 billion was proposed to develop five Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines, two Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) lines, six expressways, and three ring roads, among other components of the megacity commuting system.

The first STP, formulated in 2005, proposed an $8.0-billion investment plan to develop three MRT lines, three BRT lines, expressways, and various roads. The 2015 investment portfolio was 257-percent higher than the original STP.

Both STPs had prioritised traffic management and improvements to the bus system among the immediate projects.

However, the last Awami League government consistently prioritised high-cost, time-consuming megaprojects, resulting in increased investment requirements that had continued to grow over the past two decades.

Officials say the STP 2025 does not conceive any new mass -transit system for the greater Dhaka metropolitan area, once again placing emphasis on bus-network improvements and traffic management.

Robiul Alam, Project Director of the URSTP project, has said STP 2025 focuses on the bus network and traffic management as the foundational tier of all transport systems.

According to analysts, traffic management-and  bus -improvement projects under the first two STPs (2005 and 2015) either failed or received minimal attention due to a "nexus involving traffic police, political leaders, and transport operators".

Among the MRT and BRT initiatives, only one MRT line has reached the operational stage. No new passenger-friendly bus service has been launched.

The BRT project has been stalled despite ongoing work for the past 12 years. Bus route rationalisation and franchise programmes also failed for a lack of cooperation from bus operators.

Efforts to improve signalling systems, pedestrian movement, road crossings, road signage, and overall connectivity have similarly fallen short during the period.

On the rising investment requirements in the latest STP, Dr Shamsul Hoque says each STP revision has used traffic congestion as a bargaining tool with development partners -- often serving the interests of vested groups.

"We have been selling congestion since the 1990s, when projects like DUTS and STP were launched but failed for a lack of emphasis on the core focus: improving the bus network and traffic management," he opinions the engineering professor.

The STP 2025 also finds that the modal share of buses dropped to just 3.0 per cent, down from 9.0 per cent, even though around 60 per cent of all trips are made using buses.

An analysis of the three STPs by the FE reveals that while six MRTs have been proposed for development, the total cost of four of them has soared to Tk 1.67 trillion, up from Tk 945.31 billion in the 2015 STP.

Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited has been implementing MRT 1, MRT 6, MRT 5 North, and MRT 5 South after conducting feasibility studies based on STP 2015. No progress has been made on MRT 2 and MRT 4.

It has also been found that the costs of MRT 1 and MRT 5 rose significantly, even though the lengths of the two alignments were reduced.

For example, STP 2015 estimated Tk 456.25 billion for the 52 km construction of MRT 1. However, the feasibility study reduced the length to 31 km and raised the estimated cost to Tk 539.77 billion.

The MRT 5, initially proposed as a 31- km corridor at a cost of Tk 326.61 billion, was later divided into MRT 5 North and MRT 5 South.

The cost of MRT 5 North is now estimated at Tk 412.39 billion -- higher than the original STP 2015 estimate-even though it only covers 20 km. MRT 5 South, still in the proposal stage, is estimated to cost Tk 477.3 billion for just 10 km.

However, there has been no progress in developing the inner, middle, and outer ring roads, or expressways along the Dhaka-Chattogram, Dhaka-Mymensingh highways, and Dhaka Elevated Expressways.

The Dhaka Elevated Expressway (DEE) has been under implementation since a concessionaire contract was signed in January 2011, but officials said another 1.5 years is needed to complete the remaining 25 per cent of the construction works.

Transport analysts say the Dhaka-Chattogram Expressway project was shelved in 2018 after finalising the alignment and starting detailed design work.

Instead, the Bangladesh Bridges Authority launched a new initiative to propose subways in the city, even though no such recommendation was included in the 2015 transport master plan.

Officials at the Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority (DTCA) -- which is updating the STP 2015 -- have said a proposal to introduce Light Rapid Transit (LRT) in the city and nearby areas was also rejected in the current draft of STP 2025.

They added that the final draft of STP 2025 proposes extending existing MRTs and revising their routes to better serve the city and surrounding areas. However, a required study in this regard has yet to begin.

The STP 2025 has also emphasised the importance of bus-network development, including bus-route rationalisation and the route franchise system, as essential components of a more effective urban transportation system.

smunima@yahoo.com