Earthquake: A grim warning!

If expert opinion is any guide, the country is heading for a major earthquake devastation anytime. With several fault lines in and around the country and 34 minor tremors shaking its eastern parts including the capital city in the past two months, a major earthquake is around the corner, they forewarn. The problem with this particular natural calamity is that unlike others, it cannot be forecast and therefore gives hardly any time for taking shelter or evacuation. When the shelter ---if it is not quake-tolerant---itself gets instantly reduced to debris and crumbles like nine pins on its inhabitants, there is little hope for survival. It is more like lightning that strikes during inclement weather but with the difference that at least people have the option of not getting out when thunderstorms rain down frequently and more importantly, the latter does not kill many people or animals at a time.

Earthquakes pose the greatest threat to crowded cities developed in an unplanned manner and with buildings constructed in violation of the building codes. Along with Dhaka City, Chattogram, Sylhet, Mymensingh, Cumilla and a few other small towns are located either in the subduction zone or in close proximity of those lying outside of the border. The 300-km long and 50-km wide Kopili fault zone extending from the Western part of Manipur up to the tri-junction of Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam is neither too far nor too close to the major cities in the eastern part of Bangladesh. The Dauki seismic zone is closer and the tectonic plates collide between Chattogram and Sylhet. So, it poses a greater threat. Then there is the Madhupur fault line close to the capital. What is particularly concerning is that the epicentre, about 24 km south of Goalpara, Assam, of the Monday's quake of 5.2 magnitude was close to that of the last major quake of 8.7 magnitude in 1897.

A close scrutiny of the deaths and injuries from quakes reveals that the highest casualties from the tremor that hit Chattogram were in 1997 with 23 deaths and injuries to 200 people. Although there was no major quake, the frequency of mild tremors is on the rise since 1960s. This is a cause for concern because experts read in it a dress rehearsal for a devastating one. In post-liberation period, there were few buildings even in this capital but today's city skyline is full of tall buildings and even towns and villages are dotted with buildings not all of which are quake-resistant. In Dhaka City, not even 10 per cent buildings have been built to withstand a quake of 7.5 magnitude. In case of an earth quake above 8.0 magnitude, the death and devastation are likely to be of cataclysmic proportions.

In a situation like this, what options are open to inhabitants of this capital city and other large cities and towns feared to be devastated in case of a major quake? The options are not many but the few there are should be known to people. When Rajuk claims it has trained 1,200 engineers to inspect buildings and their structural solidity, it is small consolation. The need was to identify the vulnerable buildings and demolish or retrofit those but it is still imparting training to engineers. The focus ought to be on saving as many lives as possible. A comprehensive campaign for making people aware of the do's and don'ts in time of a quake should be launched along with drills in city wards immediately.