Bangladesh's disaster warning systems need reform too, says Prof Ainun Nishat

The Bangladesh Meteorological Department predicted heavy rain in the eastern part of the country several days before the flash floods in the region. Then why wasn’t the public aware of the forecast?

Water resource and climate change expert Prof Ainun Nishat said the technical jargon used in Bangladesh since the colonial period is not understandable by common people and causes miscommunications.

“For example, when the Met Office says a particular river is flowing 10 cm above the danger level and it would increase by another 5 cm in the next 24 hours. What does it mean?

“And what does it mean when they say the river is flowing 2 cm below the danger level?”

The Met Office issues rain forecasts based on information about the weather, such as depressions. Prof Nishat says the rainfall recorded in the country’s Sylhet and Khagrachhari before and during the flooding is ‘unusual’.

Nishat said, “The Met Office has predicted heavy rainfall, but common people do not know what is heavy, medium or light rainfall.”

Of course, the snags in communication aren’t the only cause of the intense flooding in 11 districts.

Heavy rain and floods also hit India’s Tripura, the rivers of which are upstream of Bangladesh. Normally, the water flows through these rivers to the sea through Bangladesh. But, the intensity of the rain in such a short period of time ‘unusual’ to Prof Nishat.

Thanks to their long-standing experience in handling cyclone and flood disasters, the skills of the country’s disaster management personnel have been praised at the international level for quite some time. But the administrative instability following the government changeover has made it difficult to take advantage of those skills, coordinate, and take quick action.

As the interim government prepares a roadmap for reforms to the state after taking power, Nishat recommends long-needed reforms to the weather and flood forecasting system to deal with future disasters.

The former member of the Indo-Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission, or JRC, joined bdnews24.com’s ‘Inside Out’ and shed light on the cause of this year's floods, the exchange of information with India, the controversy over the opening of India's dams, and the need to reform the country's forecasting system.

He said the reports or warnings from the agencies should be given in a language understandable by the common people.

“Now the forecast is given in a language understandable to only officials. I can understand what is being said in a flood, rain or cyclone forecast. But the common people do not understand it. The system needs to be changed. This is a legacy from the colonial period. We are still following the practice.”

“Warning is something that the common people can understand such as in the Caribbean Islands in Jamaica or Barbados,” he said.

The latest episode of ‘Inside Out’ was broadcast on bdnews24.com's Facebook page and YouTube channel on Monday.

SITUATION WAS ‘UNUSUAL’

At least 11 districts of the country have been severely affected by the ongoing floods, which the Bangladesh Meteorological Department describes as 'flash floods'.

Flooding in Bangladesh in August is nothing new. However, the areas affected in the country's north and southeastern parts by floods had no previous records of such flooding during this season.

On Wednesday, heavy runoff came from India's Tripura towards Feni and Cumilla. Within several hours, a vast swath of the area was submerged, leaving more than 5.2 million people affected by the floods.

Since the start of the flooding, there has been debate on Facebook claiming that the opening of the gates of Dumbur dam in India’s Tripura led to the flooding in Bangladesh. India claims that the allegation is misinformation.

Under the bilateral protocol, India is supposed to provide information to Bangladesh on the upstream water level and rainfall.

When asked whether India has provided the information, the former member of the Joint Rivers Commission said, “They [India] informed us about the river water level and rainfall condition and warned of its changing circumstances. The Met OOffice did a forecast based on that and it came out in the newspaper but we didn't bother. The government agencies didn't take note of it.”

He blamed ‘unusually’ heavy rain in the eastern part of the country and lack of embankments on the Muhuri and the Feni rivers for the deadly floods.

Shedding light on the protocol for an exchange of information between the two countries, Nishat said India has provided data on the water level of more than a dozen rivers and rainfall since the 1980s after the formation of the Joint Rivers Commission in 1972.

“India provides water level and rainfall data to our meteorological department from areas close to the border and based on that they [the BMD] issue forecasts.”

Saying that the Bangladesh Water Development Board prepares flooding forecasts based on the information on river water levels, Nishat said, “River water data is provided to the Water Development Board and based on those, they run models and project what would happen in the next three days with confidence. The agency also issues warnings for five days or seven days.”

“This is a standard practice and has been happening for the last 15 years. There is a mechanism by which the data is transmitted and we explain to them what we are doing and where we use the data.”

Remarking that the information was provided this time too, he said, “The forecast of rain is a very crucial issue because that dictates the flow that dictates the flood. So it came and it was given to the Met Department and I would like to defend the Met Office by saying that they had issued the forecast.”

“The newspapers, Bangla or English, reported the heavy rainfall forecast for the eastern side seven days before the floods. This is because of a depression formed over the Bay of Bengal.”

Nishat continued, “So it is not a man-made event but an unusual one. There is scope for improvement in the quality of information if the two countries cooperate with each other. But as of today, whatever information they are supposed to provide under the agreement that is being provided.”

Explaining why the situation is so bad, he said, “They [India] had provided the data on the water level condition of the river and rainfall according to the protocol. But the flood was heavier in Feni and Tripura’s Belonia as the Feni and the Muhuri rivers do not have any control structure.”

“The water has come down. Of course, there was flooding on the Indian side as well as the Bangladesh side. If somebody had monitored it carefully, if the government management was very careful, then they could have alerted the people.”

He said the dam along the Gomti River is aged and was unable to tackle the high pressure of water or it broke down.

Recommending measures for people’s rehabilitation and other sectors, he said: “Let the people be supported in getting resettled immediately. Immediate support will be needed in the communications sector because of the damage to the roads and culverts. A part of the Dhaka-Chattogram Highway has also been damaged, along with local small roads.

“And in the agriculture sector, something must be done because the Amon seeds have been damaged. It is not possible to immediately develop the seeds, they should be brought in from the flood-free area. The government should have done it.”

The expert also advised to form a high-powered committee immediately with professionals from the universities, civil society organisations and local leaders to implement the tasks.

‘UNUSUAL’ DOWNPOURS

Nishat called this year's flooding ‘unusual’ because of rain across a vast region and the intensity of the rain in a short period.

He said, “This particular rainfall pattern is natural but unusual on two counts. Firstly, it covered the entire eastern part of Bangladesh from Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Brahmanbaria, Cumilla, Feni, Noakhali to Khagrachhari.”

Highlighting that heavy rainfall fell on the Indian side as well, he said, “The western side of Bangladesh is flat and starting on the hilly western side. We have hills in Chattogram only. So when the rainfall falls on a hill area, the rain comes very quickly.”

“The second unusual thing that happened, we had heavy short-duration rainfall. It happens maybe once in 50-100 years. The monthly rainfall of the Gomti area is a maximum of 400-500 mm. But that amount of rain fell in just two or three days. They [India] had about 200 mm of rainfall on Saturday.”

Giving an example to illustrate this amount of rain, he said: “If Dhaka experiences 500 mm of rainfall, I can guarantee you will come to your office by boat. So you can understand the huge amount of water fell on the Indian side as they also had experienced a very heavy flood.”

‘DAM HAS TO BE OPENED’ WHEN WATER RISES

Tripura Power Minister Ratan Lal Nath dismissed the claim that India’s opening of a gate at Dumbur Dam without warning is what led to horrific flooding in Bangladesh.

“The propaganda being done about the opening of the Dumbur gate is nothing but misinformation. No gate has been opened at the Gomti Hydro Power Station,” he said.

“The maximum storage capacity of the power plant reservoir is 94 metres. When the water level rises above that level, it automatically passes through the gate. Once the water level drops, the gate closes by itself.

“As the water level exceeds the maximum holding capacity, the water is coming out through two gates at the reservoir. Through one of the gates, the water is coming out at a ratio of 50 percent. The people in the concerned area were alerted about the situation in advance through megaphone announcements,” Ratan added.

Nishat said the Dambur dam, 120 km upstream of the Gomti River, holds rainwater and generates power throughout the year.

“According to Indian newspapers, we purchase 40 kilowatts of electricity from there. It stops the flood water significantly. But if that is full, then they have to release the monsoon water.”

Pointing out that the flooding is generally reduced due to the retention of monsoon water in the dam, he said, “The dam was constructed around 35 years back. So 35 years back when Bangladesh and India negotiated about the data on flood forecasting, possibly how the reservoir is behaving was not included in the protocol.”

“But that dam holds the excess monsoon water. The result is, for the last 35 years, neither in Agartala in Tripura nor in Cumilla in Bangladesh and the river route along Gomti River experienced any flood.”

Prof Nishat says the Kaptai Dam in Bangladesh also holds the monsoon water for the past 50 years, preventing major floods in Rangunia and other areas in Chattogram. He said, “If it becomes full, then we have a problem that happened yesterday [Sunday].”

“If the water level is 108 MSL above mean sea level, then they [India] would be compelled to open the gates. And if they open the gates fully, then there will be a heavy flood in Rangunia and downstream of the area. They have opened the gates but only by six inches.”

WHY DO DAMS COLLAPSE?

A dam is built to retain water. So why do dams often collapse under the pressure of water?

Nishat said the dams require a proper structure. They need to be properly designed and constructed with proper maintenance.

“I have doubts about the design. Whether they are designed correctly, possibly the design is done more or less correctly, but construction is weak and maintenance is almost not there.”

“So yes, you can get a forecast, you can get a warning. But unless your infrastructure is in good shape, you will be in trouble.”

“However, this year’s flooding is an extreme event that may happen once in 50-100 years. If you want a higher level of protection, then the expenses would be very high.”

When asked if there is any way to improve the administrative and local government response, Nishat said, “Globally, It is said that local people should be involved and it's called local level adaptation, or LLA.

“Bangladesh has two laws on the matter approved by the parliament in 2012 and 2013. One says the government should have a water management committee at the district, Upazila, union, and even at the ward level. The other requires the government to have a disaster management committee at the district, Upazila, union and even at the ward level. They should be set up by involving the local community.”

"So disaster and water management should be governed and managed by a local level committee. Unfortunately, to my knowledge, these committees have been formed but they have not been given the authority.”

“My appeal would be – involve the local community. I am sitting in Dhaka but if there is a flood in Feni’s Chhagalnaiya, the people living in that area will suffer. You may give the warning to me sitting in Dhaka. If I come from that area, all I can do is call my relatives and just inform them.”