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Bangladesh will need an additional 18,162 megawatts (MW) of renewable power capacity by 2030 to reach a 20 per cent share of total power capacity, and 35,713 MW by 2040 to achieve a 30 per cent share, according to research by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
Presented at a dialogue on Sunday, the study shows that a low plant factor of just 0.25 would require an additional investment of US$35.2-42.6 billion, with most of the funding needed between 2030 and 2035 to meet the targets.
Speakers at the dialogue, titled "NDC 3.0 for the Power Sector: Is Bangladesh Setting 'Ambitious' Targets?", included Mohammad Navid Safiullah and Dr Fahmida Khanom, additional secretaries at the Ministry of Environment; Dr M Rezwan Khan, chairman of Power Grid Bangladesh PLC; and Dr M Asaduzzaman, former director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies.
Mehadi Hasan Shamim, programme associate at CPD, delivered the keynote, and Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem, CPD research director, moderated the event.
Power sector experts and economists emphasised the need for a comprehensive energy plan and called for greater private sector engagement to meet growing investment demands in the renewable power sector.
Mehadi Hasan Shamim says renewable energy currently contributes only 3.6 per cent of the national grid's power generation, while gas-based fuels account for 43.4 per cent.
The study estimates that between $35.2 billion and $42.6 billion will be required from 2025 to 2040 to integrate renewable energy alongside existing fossil fuel-based plants.
By 2030, fossil fuel capacity is expected to reach 29,773 MW -- over 4,000 MW higher than projected demand of 22,702 MW -- and will remain above demand through 2040.
The paper recommends developing a SMART renewable energy roadmap with clear milestones, a balanced technology mix, and grid-storage readiness, while strengthening regional power trade with India, Nepal, and Bhutan to secure low-cost clean electricity.
It also urges phasing out fossil fuels, mobilising $35.2 billion from multilateral development banks and climate finance, and establishing a renewable energy financing facility under SREDA/IDCOL to provide affordable loans and guarantees.
In addition, it calls for modernising the grid with smart monitoring and large-scale storage, and expanding distributed renewable energy systems such as rooftop solar, irrigation pumps, and EV charging hubs through SME and household incentives.
"Investor confidence is very important to promote renewable energy. BPDB regularly defaults in paying power plant owners," said Prof M Rezwan Khan, chairman of Power Grid Bangladesh PLC. Imran Karim, former president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers Association (BIPPA), said renewable energy currently contributed about 2.0 per cent of electricity generation.
He added that reaching 20 per cent by 2030 will require $12-14 billion in investment, with the private sector playing a key role if tenders are processed swiftly.
Dr Khondaker Golam Moazzem warned that continued policy uncertainty and reliance on fossil fuels could push Bangladesh toward financial strain and compromise climate targets.
He urged adopting a unified strategy for a successful transition to renewable energy, stressing that decisive action is needed now.
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