Rohingya repatriation still remains a far cry

As Bangladesh solemnly marks the eighth anniversary of the Rohingya influx today (August 25), the overarching truth is clear: repatriation remains uncertain, even as new waves of displacement swell the camps, humanitarian lifelines disappear, and regional diplomacy stalls, said experts.

The crisis is spiraling with over 150,000 new arrivals along with 1.2 million existing refugees, living amid decreasing food, education and legal protections, and rising geopolitical complexity in Rakhine.

During the last eight years, what began as a humanitarian catastrophe has evolved into an entrenched political, social, and economic crisis for Bangladesh and for the Rohingya people.

Since the brutal military crackdown in Myanmar's Rakhine State in 2017 led to the exodus of over a million Rohingya populations into Bangladesh, not a single refugee has been successfully repatriated. Instead, the situation has worsened, while Bangladesh has been struggling with dire humanitarian and socio-economic fallout.

The current crisis stems from an escalation in civil war dynamics. Violent conflict continues to ravage Rakhine State, now dominated in parts by the Arakan Army. In May 2024, the deliberate burning of Rohingya-majority Buthidaung rendered up to 200,000 people internally displaced, nearly all of whom fled to Bangladesh. Reports estimate that more than 150,000 Rohingya people have fled to Bangladesh in recent months alone.

The country now shelters approximately 1.2 million Rohingya in Cox's Bazar camps - a staggering burden for a developing nation. Yet, the humanitarian response is unraveling under severe funding shortfalls.

The World Food Programme (WFP) has halved food rations for the refugees, slashing daily vouchers from Tk 1,515 to just Tk 726 per person.

Some US$934 million was needed in 2025 to support 1.5 million people (1.2 million refugees plus 300,000 local host-community members), but only 19 per cent of the funds have materialised in the first five months.

The United Nations agencies, including UNHCR, have seen only 30 per cent of their $383 million appeal for 2025 met. Over $300 million in planned activities were frozen in March.

As a result, more than 4,500 learning centers closed, depriving nearly 227,500 refugee children of education, while 1,200 teachers lost their jobs. This has triggered a surge in child labour and child marriage, as families struggle to cope.

The UN investigative body IIMM is also facing a $6.2-million funding gap, undermining efforts to document atrocities and protect witnesses.

With food, healthcare, education, and legal protections collapsing, the camps on the Bangladesh coast are verging on a tipping point. The country's economy and society are being squeezed. Hosting 1.2 million refugees has fueled tensions within the host communities, burdened public services, and increased vulnerability to disease, crime, and environmental stress.

The government has repeatedly stressed that the crisis cannot be borne by Bangladesh alone - foreign support and shared responsibility are crucial.

Despite repeated repatriation pledges, tangible progress remains elusive. Bangladesh submitted a list of 800,000 Rohingya for return, yet the Myanmar junta acknowledged only 180,000 as "eligible" - and with no timeline or guarantees attached.

Meanwhile, the rise of the Arakan Army complicates any returns: even if the central government consents, the AA's control of the Rakhine means repatriation cannot proceed without its agreement.

Bangladesh has proposed support for rebuilding the Rakhine's economy to foster a safe return environment, and reiterated the need for a structured roadmap rooted in peace and stability.

On the regional stage, the ASEAN foreign ministers reaffirmed support for "voluntary, safe, secure and dignified" repatriation and welcomed cooperation between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

However, the human rights watchdogs criticise the ASEAN's minimalist "non-interference" stance, saying that the bloc has repeatedly failed to translate rhetoric into meaningful actions.

China remains one of the few actors showing constructive diplomacy. In 2021, Beijing hosted a trilateral meeting with Bangladesh and Myanmar that resulted in a consensus to launch pilot repatriations, with China offering continued "good offices" to facilitate dialogue.

Still, the international community's response has been insufficient. Bangladesh's appeals for shared burden, proactive diplomatic engagement, and stronger regional leadership are yet to translate into breakthroughs.

Unless urgent action is taken to restore funding, protect basic human needs, and enforce meaningful repatriation frameworks, the Rohingya crisis will plunge further into despair, and Bangladesh's capacity to respond will implode.

Meanwhile, the interim government is going to organise four high-level conferences on the Rohingya issue from August to December this year. The first one - a three-day dialogue on Rohingya issue - started in Cox's Bazar on Sunday.

The main event in Cox's Bazar is an international conference titled "Stakeholder Dialogue: Messages for Discussion at the High-Level Conference on the Rohingya Situation" to be held today (Monday). The Chief Adviser will attend the event as the chief guest.

Following this, a high-level conference on the Rohingya issue will take place on 30 September in New York, alongside the United Nations General Assembly. Another international conference on the Rohingya issue is scheduled to be held in Doha, Qatar, on 6 December.

The conference is expected to include foreign ministers from several countries, international envoys on the Rohingya issue, representatives from Bangladeshi missions abroad, and officials from various United Nations agencies.

mirmostafiz@yahoo.com